Conference Program

The relationship between family expectations and student performance has long been a central question in the sociology of education. Reproduction theorists argue that educational institutions reproduce social inequalities by privileging the cultural codes of dominant classes, while families from lower social backgrounds progressively disengage from a system not built for them (Bianchi et al., 2025; Cabrera et al., 2019; Pérez et al., 2014). This paper examines how this disengagement unfolds longitudinally, focusing on inequalities in families' university expectations by parental education level and their relationship with reading performance throughout compulsory schooling.

We use longitudinal data from three standardised assessments —aligned with international large-scale assessment frameworks— conducted by the Canary Islands Agency for University Quality and Educational Evaluation on the same cohort in 2016, 2019 and 2023, when students were in 3rd, 6th and 10th grade. The assessments covered almost the full student census in the Canary Islands (Spain), with nearly 20,000 students per wave (n = 20,431; 19,855; and 18,522, respectively). We use sequential binomial logistic regression models to first estimate the probability that a family reports a defined expectation (vs. “don’t know”), and then, among those families, the probability of expecting university completion.

At 3rd grade, university expectations are high across all groups: 74% among families with lower secondary education or less, 86% among those with upper secondary, and 95% among university-educated families. By 10th grade, expectations among the lowest-educated families drop sharply to 48%, whilst they remain at 88% among university-educated families — a gap of 40 percentage points. Grade retention disproportionately affects students from lower-educated families and significantly reduces university expectations; crucially, there is a significant interaction whereby performance increasingly penalises these families over time, progressively eroding their connection to university expectations in ways not observed among higher-educated families.

These results show that lower-educated families do not begin with substantially lower aspirations, but declining performance trajectories and a higher risk of grade retention progressively signal that university is not a realistic destination for their children. The school does not merely reflect existing inequalities; it can contribute to amplifying them through institutional mechanisms and the progressive disengagement of families with lower cultural capital.

This study provides census-level longitudinal evidence on how the encounter between educational institutions and families from different social backgrounds contributes to the progressive fading of educational expectations. Inequalities emerge not from initial differences in aspirations, but from declining performance trajectories, grade retention, and the gradual disengagement of lower-educated families. Implications for equity-oriented policy and early intervention will be discussed.