Conference Program

Introduction

The transition from lower- to upper-secondary education represents a decisive juncture in students’ educational trajectories, with long-term consequences for academic achievement, labour-market outcomes, and social mobility. In Italy, this transition occurs at the end of Grade 8, when students choose whether to enrol in an academic, technical, or vocational track. While a growing body of research has documented learning losses associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, less attention has been paid to its influence on educational decision-making at key branching points (Aalto et al., 2023; van de Werfhorst et al., 2023). Disruptions to in-person schooling, counselling activities, and teacher-family interactions, combined with economic uncertainty, may have altered how families evaluated the risks and returns of upper-secondary tracks.

Ethnic inequalities in Italian education are well documented (Azzolini & Barone, 2013). Even net of academic performance, students with a migration background are less likely than natives to enrol in academic tracks and more likely to enter technical or vocational programmes (Ferrara & Brunori, 2024). The pandemic may therefore have reinforced employment-oriented decisions among disadvantaged families, potentially widening pre-existing ethnic gaps. This study examines whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced upper-secondary track choices and whether these changes differed between native children and children of immigrants.

Data and methods

The analysis uses population data from INVALSI-SNV, longitudinally linked to follow students from Grade 8 into Grade 10. Two cohorts are observed: a pre-Covid cohort in Grade 8 in 2016/17 and Grade 10 in 2018/19, and a Covid cohort in Grade 8 in 2020/21 and Grade 10 in 2022/23. The cohorts are pooled and analysed through a multilevel multinomial logistic model with school-level random intercepts, random slopes for the Covid cohort, and provincial fixed effects.

The outcome variable is upper-secondary track choice (academic, technical, vocational). The main independent variable is migration background, distinguishing native, mixed-origin, second-generation and first-generation students. An interaction term between migration background and cohort is added. Four models are estimated. Model 1 controls for gender, regularity of school progression, attendance of early childhood education. Model 2 additionally includes parental socioeconomic status. Models 3 and 4 further control for prior academic achievement, measured using students’ lower-secondary grades in Italian and mathematics in Grade 8 (Model 3) and standardised test scores in the same subjects (Model 4).

Preliminary findings

Results show persistent ethnic stratification in track choice. In Model 1, second- and first-generation students are more likely than natives to enrol in technical and vocational tracks rather than academic ones, with stronger shifts towards non-academic tracks in the Covid cohort. In Model 2, controlling for parental socioeconomic background reduces these differences, but they do not disappear. The key findings emerge in Models 3 and 4, which account for prior achievement using alternative measures. When achievement is measured through lower-secondary grades (Model 3), Covid-by-migration interactions become statistically insignificant. However, when achievement is measured using standardised test scores (Model 4), significant post-Covid interactions persist, particularly for second-generation students, who show an increased likelihood of entering technical and vocational tracks rather than academic ones.