Conference Program

Promoted by Fondazione per la Scuola (Compagnia di San Paolo Foundation)

Across Europe, demographic change is reshaping societies, with declining birth rates and ageing populations becoming structural features of many countries. Italy represents one of the most pronounced cases of this trend, with a sustained and significant reduction in births over the past decades.

While the economic and social implications of demographic decline are widely discussed, its consequences for education remain insufficiently addressed. The progressive reduction of the school-age population is already producing declining enrolments, fewer classes, and — in some areas — the closure or consolidation of schools. In rural, inner, and peripheral areas, the contraction of school networks risks weakening access to education and reinforcing territorial inequalities. In urban contexts, demographic decline interacts with residential segregation and school choice, potentially reshaping the social composition of schools and amplifying inequalities.

A critical but often overlooked dimension concerns the teaching workforce. Demographic decline is expected to reduce demand for teachers, raising challenges related to workforce planning, recruitment, and retention. Without strategic policy responses, there is a risk of a purely proportional reduction in teaching staff, potentially undermining the attractiveness of the profession and limiting opportunities for generational renewal.

Demographic decline is not merely a quantitative contraction, but a structural transformation affecting school organisation, resource allocation, and classroom composition. At the same time, it opens a policy window: fewer students may allow for improved student–teacher ratios, more personalised learning, and innovative organisational models — if supported by appropriate strategic choices.

The symposium explores these challenges with the school system as the main unit of analysis, combining demographic, territorial, and educational policy perspectives. It aims to move beyond a defensive approach centred on cost containment, and to discuss how demographic change can be leveraged as an opportunity to redesign school systems, improve quality, and strengthen equity.

Key Questions

• What demographic scenarios are most relevant for the future of school systems, and how should they inform long-term planning?
• How does demographic decline reshape school networks, territorial inequalities, and the teaching workforce?
• Can demographic decline be leveraged as an opportunity to redesign school systems and improve equity and quality, rather than leading to proportional downsizing?

Programme (2 hours – in Italian)

WELCOME

• Giulia Guglielmini – President, Fondazione per la Scuola

PRESENTATIONS

• Cristina Solera – Università degli Studi di Torino

  Too few children: by choice or by constraint? Low fertility in Italy in a comparative perspective

• Roberto Ricci – President, INVALSI

  Rethinking school systems: organisation, quality and equity

 

PANEL DISCUSSION: FROM DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE TO POLICY AND PRACTICE

Chaired by Giulia Guglielmini, Fondazione per la Scuola

• Roberto Ricci – President, INVALSI
• Giuseppina Rita José Mangione – Researcher, INDIRE
• Alessandro Clavarino – Head, Genoa Provincial School Office