Conference Agenda

Internal migration significantly impacts population redistribution in Italy, particularly in light of the country's negative natural growth. Foreigners, who comprised about 8% of the population in 2012, accounted for 20% of internal migration flows, highlighting their higher mobility. The number of citizenship acquisitions has steadily increased, exceeding 200,000 per year, with new Italian citizens unevenly distributed across the territory, being more concentrated in northern regions. This study investigates whether the internal migration behavior of new Italian citizens aligns more closely with that of native Italians or foreign residents. Using interprovincial migration data from 2012 to 2022, we employ a modified gravity model that accounts for the distinct characteristics of Italians, new Italians, and foreigners to examine the push and pull factors influencing migration.

The findings reveal that new Italians exhibit migration behaviors more similar to foreigners than to natives, challenging the assumptions of the Zaragoza Declaration on integration. The study underscores the importance of analyzing internal migration by citizenship, offering valuable insights for policymakers. Understanding these migration patterns is essential for addressing integration challenges and planning for future population distribution dynamics.

This study investigates population dynamics in Italian provinces (NUTS-3 level). Using the Population Turnover Rate (PTR) and the Migration Share of Turnover (MST) for the period 2011-2020, we assess population changes across Italy’s subnational regions, categorized by their degree of urbanization (DEGURBA) as urban, intermediate and rural areas. Direct standardization is applied to account for variations in local age structures, allowing comparability across provinces. Results reveal a distinct North-South gradient, with northern provinces exhibiting higher PTR and MST, largely influenced by migration flows, while southern regions reflect greater contributions from natural population changes. Additionally, sparsely populated and internal rural areas face intensified aging and depopulation pressures, as demonstrated by the significant increase in MST adjustments. These findings underscore the demographic challenges faced by Italy’s internal and rural areas, where declining birth rates and high outmigration ra

Germany, like many countries, is experiencing population ageing, with the level and speed of this process varying across regions. Particularly in rural areas, population ageing is advancing rapidly. Regionally differing shifts in the age structure might also affect internal migration patterns. This study quantifies the extent to which changes in internal migration patterns in Germany can be attributed to changes in regional age composition. Using data from the Federal Statistical Office and the Statistical Offices of the Länder, we apply Kitagawa's (1955) decomposition method to decompose changes in internal migration rates between 1991 and 2021 into the composition effect (age structure changes) and the rate effect (behavioral changes). Applying the regional typology developed by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development, we distinguish between the largest cities, urban counties, the hinterland and rural counties. Our findings reveal that changes in internal migration rates by regional typology are largely driven by shifts in age-specific behaviour, while the impact of changes in the age composition is comparatively smaller. However, population ageing has had a noticeable impact on increasing internal net migration rates in rural areas and declining internal migration into the largest cities.

In this contribution we delve into the factors – especially internal and international migration – leading to population change at the local level focusing on inner areas. Small-scale processes driven by geographic patterns and socio-economic disparities are also considered. However, the focus is on the inner areas, characterised by poor accessibility to all essential services compared to the centres providing these services. Three regions of southern Italy are considered: Apulia, Campania and Sicily. Municipalities belonging to the groups of inner areas are divided into the categories intermediate, remote and ultra-remote and compared to municipalities identified through the categories service poles – urban centres and inter-municipal urban centres – as well as urban belt. In analysing regional population change (including population ageing) and the contribution of internal and international migration it is important to remember that the underlying migratory behaviours are those of distinct populations: the Italian and the foreign populations with different migratory patterns and trends. Balanced regional demographic change has positive effects on social cohesion, economic competitiveness and the sustainable development of local areas and of entire territorial systems. The resulting levels of well-being in the geographic and socio-economic categories of areas and individual local areas are decisive in the argument.

This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating and forecasting internal migration flows in Italy from 2002 to 2018. We use demographic and geographic covariates, including population size, regional boundaries, and lagged total fertility rates. Results suggest that administrative boundaries, rather than distance, significantly influence migration flows, with replacement migration playing a relevant role. Building on the literature on probabilistic population projections, we then develop a Bayesian autoregressive model. Preliminary results suggest that the proposed model outperforms traditional persistence models in both point forecast accuracy providing reliable migration forecasts while reflecting inherent uncertainty in migration patterns.