Conference Agenda

Union dissolution is highly stratified by individuals’ and couples’ characteristics and is shaped by the cultural and historical contexts in which couples live. Previous literature often states that an increase in women’s salaries would increase the risk of union dissolution and documents higher divorce risks when women have the higher relative earnings. However, the association between relative earnings and marital dissolution is context-dependent and studies from the US document that for younger cohorts the situation changed. Germany provides an interesting test case for how contextual situations in terms of gender norms and equality influence the stratification of divorce risks. Based on SOEP data for various cohorts born between 1951 and 1990 from East and West Germany we show that in West Germany couples’ where the wife outearns the husband shows a higher divorce-risk in all cohorts while in East Germany this is no longer true for cohorts born after 1970.

A long-standing debate questions whether having children stabilizes unions once selection into parenthood is considered. Previous studies often overlook couples who are unintentionally childless. To address this gap, we use information on pregnancy loss. Our analysis focuses on British and German couples who either transitioned to parenthood or experienced pregnancy loss, remaining childless or having a live birth afterward. Using longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (Pairfam) and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS), we apply event history analysis to assess partnership stability, accounting for selection factors such as sociodemographic characteristics, partnership dynamics, and mental health. Results reveal that couples remaining childless after pregnancy loss face a higher risk of separation compared to those with a live birth. The risk of breakup peaks three years after pregnancy loss, declining and becoming insignificant after seven to eight years. Couples with a live birth before or after pregnancy loss have a lower risk of dissolution. Differences in grief responses, with women often more depressed than men, contribute to separation risk. These findings emphasize the long-term strain pregnancy loss places on partnerships, especially in childless couples, and highlight the stabilizing effect of parenthood.

In Italy, union dissolution has become more and more frequent notwithstanding the two stages’ process (separation followed by divorce). The processes of unions’ formation and dissolution has changed throughout the life course of individuals, not only in relation to the postponement of the family formation at first union, but also because, marital instability and the formation of new couples are emerging even in later stages of the life course. The international literature has coined the term "gray divorces" (or in a broader sense “silver splitters”) to refer to marital instability in old age.

The idea is to study the risk of divorce in selected years in Italy considering the different characteristics of the spouses, the marriage cohort and the place of residence information. Main data source is the Base Register of Individuals (RBI) that is a collection of individuals derived from the integration of various administrative sources. RBI information would be integrated with elaboration on ISTAT "Acquisitions of citizenship".

We will apply logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics (age, gender, citizenship), economic resources (education), territorial dimensions (place of usual residence, municipality typology) and marital characteristics (marriage duration) are related to divorcing in the past 12 months vs remaining married.

This study examines union dissolution patterns among same-sex and different-sex couples in France, using comprehensive administrative data from the French Permanent Demographic Sample (EDP). Prior research, primarily from Northern Europe and the U.S., suggests higher instability among same-sex couples, particularly female couples, compared to different-sex unions. Our study seeks to explore whether these patterns hold in France, analyzing the role of income distribution, union type, and parenthood in influencing union stability across various couple types.

Using a dataset of over 450,000 newly formed couples tracked over seven years, this study assesses the yearly risk of union dissolution through discrete-time event history models. Preliminary findings indicate that same-sex couples, especially female same-sex couples, have a higher probability of dissolution than different-sex couples, even when accounting for factors like income equality, union type, and presence of children. Moreover, while marriage tends to stabilize unions for both same-sex and different-sex couples, cohabiting and PACS unions show higher dissolution risks.

Future analyses will expand on this model by including additional cohorts, enhancing robustness, and verifying couple gender identification through linkage with census data. This study contributes to understanding how gender dynamics and economic factors shape union stability across sexual orientations.

Parents are a relevant source of support in the lives of their adult children, for example, in their childbearing decisions as providers of emotional and instrumental support. In turn, grandparents may also influence their children’s childbearing decisions through their adverse life course events, such as union dissolution. However, how late-life divorce affects adult children’s childbearing trajectories, and particularly the interplay with the child’s gender, remains unknown. Our study investigates the association between late-life divorce and childbearing within European intergenerational families. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (waves 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8), we estimate how the experience of late-life divorce affects adult children's childbearing by different welfare regimes. Our unadjusted results indicate a negative association between late-life divorce and the number of grandchildren. However, when adjusting for individual fixed effects, the association reverses, probably signaling the role of individual mechanisms over aggregate ones. Our study will contribute valuable insights into how increasing family complexities affect intergenerational relationships and fertility decisions across different types of welfare regimes.