Does loneliness mediate the relationship between migration background and health trajectories? A longitudinal analysis using a parallel process latent growth curve mediation model
Songyun Shi1, Silvia Loi1,2
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, GERMANY; 2Max Planck – University of Helsinki Center for Social Inequalities in Population Health
Background
While the loneliness experienced by immigrants and its negative impact on health are well-documented, limited longitudinal evidence on whether loneliness mediates the relationship between migration and health. This study examines the direct impact of migration on mental and physical health trajectories, as well as its indirect effects through loneliness.
Methods
Using 2013–2020 Socio-Economic Panel data (N = 10,912), we applied a parallel process latent growth curve mediation model to examine the long-term impact of migration on physical and mental health trajectories and explore the mediating role of loneliness in this relationship in the German context.
Results
Immigrants were more likely to experience faster physical health deterioration than non-immigrants. Loneliness fully mediates the relationship between migration and the initial level of mental and physical health. Specifically, immigrants were more likely to experience loneliness, which led to lower levels of mental and physical health than non-immigrants.
Discussion
The mediating role of loneliness between migration and mental and physical health highlights the need for policies or interventions that reduce loneliness among immigrants to improve their mental and physical health. Future studies are needed to investigate the mechanisms behind the faster physical health deterioration experienced by immigrants than non-immigrants.
Inequalities in suicide attempts for children of refugees in adolescence and early adulthood
Lisa Harber-Aschan1, Elena Pupaza1, Ben Wilson1,2
1Stockholm University, SWEDEN; 2London School of Economics, UNITED KINGDOM
Refugees tend to have lower risks of suicide, but it is unclear whether these mental health advantages extend to their children. This study uses linked data from demographic registers and hospital registers for the population of Sweden, to examine how the risk of suicide attempts for Swedish-born children of refugees (G2 refugees) compares to the children of Swedish-born parents, and other migrant descendant groups, examining variations by parental country of birth and gender. We focus on individuals born 1986-2009, and capture suicide attempts from age 12 until year 2021 (N=2,314,456, of which n=149,420 G2 refugees). We use a discrete time event history approach and logistic regression analysis, adjusting for birth cohort and baseline confounders. Overall, the children of refugees are not at increased risk of suicide attempts compared to native-born population, but substantial heterogeneity exists such that certain sub-groups at risk can be identified, as well as some protected groups.
Migration, gender and cognitive decline over the life-course: an intersectional perspective
Giulia Tattarini1, Silvia Loi2
1Hamburg University, GERMANY; 2Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, GERMANY
This study explores the relationships between migration, gender, and cognitive decline throughout the life course, focusing on the age at migration within an intersectional framework. Cognitive decline, a critical concern in aging populations, varies significantly across different demographic groups. However, limited research has investigated the intersection of migration and gender as determinants of cognitive health. This study aims to fill this gap by analyzing longitudinal data (SHARE) on how the intersection of gender and migration status influences cognitive trajectories and evaluating the role of age of migration. Based on random effects growth curve models, our analysis shows that individuals who migrate at younger ages maintain better cognitive health after age 50 compared to those who migrate at older ages (when compared to non-immigrants). The latter also experience faster declines in cognitive health, especially after age 70. Additionally, results show that women generally have higher memory scores than men, with significant advantages for non-immigrant women and immigrant women who migrated in early childhood. Immigrant men who migrated after age 18 face the greatest cognitive health challenges after age 50.
The environment around us: statistical insights into community perceptions using PASSI data
Mattia Stival1, Angela Andreella2, Gaia Bertarelli1
1Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia, ITALY; 2Università di Trento, ITALY
Understanding community perceptions of environmental health, such as air pollution or climate change, is essential for anticipating public response, fostering the acceptance of related policies, and effectively engaging communities in one health effort. Motivated by the exceptionally high regional coverage of the environmental module achieved in 2023 by the PASSI survey (Progressi delle Aziende Sanitarie per la Salute in Italia), this project explores the survey’s potentials to deepen our understanding of how Italian citizens perceive their local environment. We focus on investigating whether environmental risk perception aligns with objective environmental data, e.g., satellite-based measurements. Analyzing these aspects enables the development of novel livability indicators, areal benchmarks, and inferential frameworks for spatial comparison. This, in turn, offers a comprehensive modeling approach that informs targeted interventions, public awareness initiatives, and policy recommendations for improving livability and accessibility for disadvantaged groups.
How the active population is going to change until 2050?
Marco Rizzo, Martina Lo Conte, Marco Marsili, Cristina Ocello, Andrea Spizzichino
ISTAT, ITALY
Istat annually produces households and population projections to represent the future trend of the population. The information produced is both in terms of total numbers and in terms of age and sex structure. The unique age structure of Italy, which has the oldest population in Europe with a median age of over 48 (EU 44.5), highlights challenging future scenarios, particularly for the labour market, a main area of interest for policy makers from a medium-term perspective. This contribution presents a derived projection model that Istat aims at implementing to estimate labour market trends in Italy until 2050. The focus is on the activity rate, broken down by sex and five-year age groups. Following a top-down approach, results are provided at the national level, followed by a breakdown at the regional level. The model is inspired by the one used for the official household projections; it is a static method based on propensity rates applied to the projected population. The projections take into account effects that significantly influence the labour market developments. Results will be adjusted for changes in life expectancy, the increase in the retirement age and delayed entry into the labour force due to longer education.
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