Conference Agenda

In an age of uncertainty—marked by climate change, economic crises, regional conflicts, threats to democracy and liberties—this study explores how these global challenges influence fertility decisions. Focusing on Italy, a country with persistently low fertility rates, we examine how these macro-level issues compare with personal factors, like income and gender role in shaping reproductive choices.

Using a novel experimental approach, the Factorial Survey Experiment, we address the multidimensional nature of fertility decisions by presenting 2,500 respondents with diverse scenarios to assess their childbearing intentions, in an ad hoc web-panel survey carried out in 2024. This method offers a fresh perspective on how today’s global uncertainties shape reproductive choices and how they could contribute to exacerbate low fertility trends. In addition, we identify the factors – both at individual and macro level – that could moderate the effect of macro shocks.

The novelty of our paper is in showing that a sort of couple squeeze can arise even if men and women are in a similar number, due to a different propensity of men and women to form unions subsequent to the first. More broadly:

1.Men are more likely to form another union after the breakup of a cohabiting union;

2.If this phenomenon is of a certain intensity, then these diachronic polygamous men "steal" women from other men, and some men do not find a partner with whom to form their first union.

3.Since the vast majority of children are born from a union, these never united men remain childless.

This hypothesis cannot be punctually verified for Italy, since population registry data or detailed survey on the union history of both partners are lacking. However, this paper highlights some different clues, using demographic analysis, simulations, and logistic models applied to survey individual data, uding FSS of 2016 and Civil Status of 2022 and 2023.

Results cope our hypothesis: the couple squeeze is more accentuated for the younger generations and for people with a university degree.

In examining Italy's low fertility rates, recent studies emphasize the role played by socio-economic factors, uncertainty, and welfare state. However, emerging research highlights a potential downward revision of fertility ideals among younger generations. Our study analyses fertility desires, expectations, and the perceived value of having children among young adults in Italy from 2012 to 2022. Findings reveal a growing tendency of being childfree and not expecting to have children in life. In particular, they indicate a nuanced demographic gradient: we observe a decline in fertility desires and expectations with age, and a significant increase in the likelihood of not desiring children for women. Educational background, which was positively associated with fertility desires at the beginning of the observational period, in post-pandemic shows a negative or null relationship. Our study highlights the need for robust, harmonized cross-country surveys to better understand new fertility ideals across different socio-demographic contexts.

Analysis of fertility intentions and their realizations is essential to understand reproductive behavior in countries with widespread access to effective birth control. Specifically, what economic, social, or cultural factors lead couples to have more or fewer children than they initially planned? We address this question within the Italian Institute of Statistics Thematic Laboratory by constructing a longitudinal register using record linkage techniques between the 2016 Families, Households, and Life Cycle Survey (FSS16) and the 2023 Base Register on Individuals (RBI2023). Within the Italian Institute of Statistics Thematic Laboratory, we tackle this question by constructing a longitudinal register through record linkage techniques between the 2016 Families, Households, and Life Cycle Survey (FSS16) and the 2023 Base Register on Individuals (RBI2023). Using pseudonymized keys, we linked these sources to examine fertility trends among 5,587 women aged 18-49 in 2016, tracking births post-2016 to observe fertility changes within families over time. This longitudinal approach allows us to gain insights into evolving family and fertility dynamics. The findings reveal notable delays in childbearing and outcomes that fall well below initial respondents’ expectations. These results underscore substantial barriers to family formation and reproductive behavior in Italy.

Fertility dynamics among migrants are likely to be also the result of the interplay of various forms of uncertainty migrants face before, during, and after migration. This study uses data from the 2019 Regional Observatory for Integration and Multi-ethnicity (ORIM), providing information on migration histories and fertility preferences of individuals with a migrant background, to explore how economic, legal, and housing uncertainties influence their short-term fertility intentions. Lombardy, a region hosting about a quarter of Italy's foreign population, presents a unique 'experimental laboratory' for examining these dynamics. We use Discrete Choice Model Analysis to investigate how short-term fertility intention vary depending on migrants’ legal status, economic and labor market objective and subjective insecurity and housing conditions, net of the typical socio-demographic determinants of migrants’ fertility. By focusing on a region with a significant and diverse foreign population, the study provides insights into how these forms of uncertainty interact with the migratory background to shape fertility intentions. Our findings offer valuable insights into the factors influencing migrant women and men's fertility intentions, to advocate for policies tackling uncertainty while considering the multifaceted nature of migrants' lives.