Conference Agenda

This study explores how extreme precipitation and family structure influenced fertility timing in rural Bologna (1818–1900). Using a discrete-time logistic regression model on women-month observations, the analysis focused on the probability of birth, with precipitation categorized into low, medium, and high levels based on the six months preceding conception.

In the study area, sharecroppers often lived in large, multi-family households, offering resilience against climatic challenges. Conversely, nuclear families, common among landless laborers, faced greater vulnerability due to economic instability and limited support networks.

Results showed a significant negative impact of high precipitation on fertility in nuclear families, especially before Italian unification (1818–1860), with odds ratios indicating reduced birth probabilities. Sharecropping families were less affected, reflecting their economic stability. After unification (1861–1900), the adverse effects of precipitation on nuclear families diminished, aligning with improved living conditions.

Data from parish registers and the Status Animarum enabled detailed life histories, while climatic data from Bologna’s Astronomic Observatory provided precise environmental context. This study highlights how socioeconomic and environmental factors interacted to shape reproductive behavior, demonstrating that extended family networks mitigated the impact of climatic stress on fertility, a dynamic that shifted with historical improvements in rural living standards.

The timing of fertility declines in developed societies during the last decade prompted scholars to associate it with the Great Recession of 2008. However, the persistence of fertility declines during the 2010s suggests that other developments, maybe triggered by the crisis, have influenced fertility. Here, we investigate how the growing support for right-wing populist parties may have affected childbearing trends. We focus on Sweden where the vote share of Sweden Democrats increased seven-fold between 2006 and 2022, and fertility rates simultaneously declined by more than twenty percent. We use population-register data to construct complete individual-level fertility histories and link women to the Sweden Democrats share of votes in their municipality of residence in the elections that were held in 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018. We estimate fixed effects models to test whether changes in the support for Sweden Democrats in the local municipality influenced the average woman’s probability of having a child in a negative direction, net of observed and unobserved individual-level and municipality characteristics.

Recent studies indicate that people living in affluent societies increasingly view parenthood as a demanding choice, both financially and emotionally, while a rising number of individuals embrace childfree attitudes. This trend points to cultural values as influential in the ongoing fertility decline by affecting motivations behind childbearing. Our claim is that post-materialists may view parenthood as less fulfilling unless strong economic and institutional support mitigates the uncertainties and high demands of intensive parenting. This study explores how cultural values, economic resources, and institutional support together shape fertility preferences, particularly for post-materialists. Analyzing data from the 2022 Rapporto Giovani survey, we find that childless post-materialists, on average, consider parenthood less crucial to a fulfilling life than do more materialistic individuals. However, post-materialists who expect significant welfare support place similar importance on childbearing as materialists, while financial status shows no significant association. Though preliminary, these findings raise important questions about the ways policy can impact fertility, especially by addressing how cultural and motivational factors interact with external support.

Climate change-induced temperature increases and extreme weather events are impacting human health and wellbeing. Warmer temperatures are reported to affect both reproductive health and behaviors, possibly reducing birth rates. In a low fertility context, the potential negative impact that climate change may have on fertility is consequential. This study focuses on Italy, a country characterized by low fertility and regional climate variability, suffering from the rising temperatures and severeness of meteorological extremes in the past years. Matching monthly birth registration data with E-OBS meteorological data, we analyze the relationship between heat exposure and age-specific fertility rates in 107 Italian provinces (corresponding to the NUTS-3 classification). Results show that exposure to extremely hot days, which are defined as days with a mean temperature above 30°C, has a relatively immediate impact on conception probabilities as it reduces the total fertility rate nine months later. Colder days, on the other hand, do not show any significant relationships with fertility patterns.

A substantial body of research has explored the relationship between education and fertility behaviour. However, the impact of genetic factors, which can shape both education and fertility, has been largely overlooked. Using data from the UK Biobank and leveraging a compulsory schooling age reform in 1972 as a natural experiment, we investigate the effect of education on fertility outcomes. Additionally, we assess whether this effect varies by genetic predisposition for educational attainment, measured by polygenic indices. Our findings indicate that an additional year of schooling delays the age of first childbirth by more than a year, primarily through reducing teenage fertility. The reform had been particularly effective on reducing teenage motherhood for the individuals with a lower genetic propensity for educational attainment. Studying more delayed sexual debut without increasing contraception use during teenage years, suggesting a possible "incarceration effect" where remaining in school postpones sexual activity without necessarily enhancing contraceptive knowledge.