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Once bitten second shy? The Effect of Supplier Exposure and Rare Events on the Timing of Orders
Neslihan Ozlu
Stockholm University, Sweden
Using 50K observations of purchase tasks, we examine the mechanism behind purchasers’ decisions on the timing of the orders. Our analysis focuses on the impact of exposure to suppliers and rare events throughout the history of experiences of the purchasers. We find that exposure to specific suppliers increases the safety time for the current order; rare events in the prior orders are increasing the safety time. We also observe that purchasers rely on self-experienced orders rather than peers.
Is separately modeling subpopulations beneficial for sequential decision-making?
Ilbin Lee
University of Alberta, Canada
In recent applications of Markov decision processes, it is common to estimate model parameters from data. When data are collected from a population, one faces a modeling question of whether to estimate different models for subpopulations. This work provides theoretical results and empirical methods for making the decision of whether to model subpopulations separately or not. We also present how to use our results to select the best stratification and empirical results using various instances.