Conference Agenda

Gut-brain Axis Disorders (GBAD) are a major public health issue in poor nations, although Central American epidemiology and risk factor modeling are lacking. Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed and validated to characterize probability correlations between demographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics related with GBAD in Honduran communities. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in September–December 2025 among 1,838 12-49-year-olds in six health regions. Use of gastrointestinal literature with Maximum Likelihood Estimation to create the BN structure. The model validation used 5-fold cross-validation, resulting in an AUC-ROC of 0.686 (±0.028). Total GBAD prevalence was 56.0%. Conditional probability analysis showed that prior medical diagnosis (P(GBAD|Diagnosis)=0.840), smoking (P(GBAD|Smoking)=0.815), and alcohol intake each had the highest relationships with GBAD. A comprehensive healthy lifestyle reduced GBAD likelihood by 32.0% relative to baseline in what-if intervention analysis. Prior diagnosis (MI=0.047), alcohol intake (MI=0.017), and smoking (MI=0.016) were the most informative predictors. The suggested BN framework helps public health practitioners evaluate intervention scenarios and allocate community GBAD preventive resources in a clear, interpretable manner