Conference Agenda

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Real-Time Transient Model (RTTM) for leak detection in Section I of the Norperuvian Pipeline (ONP). Through advanced hydraulic simulations, critical operational scenarios, such as sudden flow variations, high-density batch transitions, and small leaks, were analyzed to identify characteristic patterns and optimize system configuration. The results indicate that the RTTM can detect leaks as small as 0.125 inches within 30 minutes using 6-minute time steps; however, 60-minute time steps provide greater stability in transient scenarios with extended response times. This analysis also assessed the influence of dynamic configurations aimed at enhancing system sensitivity, improving performance under more complex operational conditions. The study highlights the importance of volume balance (VB) as a useful tool for improving the sensitivity of such monitoring systems, adding value to the design of methodologies that can be replicated and/or applied to other transportation systems, ultimately contributing to the minimization of environmental and operational risks in critical infrastructure.

The intensification of extreme hydrometeorological events driven by climate change presents a significant challenge for water resource management and flood control in vulnerable regions. This study evaluates the combined impacts of climate change and soil-abstraction characteristics on runoff processes in the experimental Ichu River basin, located in the central Andes of Peru, using distributed hydrological-hydraulic models on the HEC-RAS platform and Curve Number (CN) parameters derived from high-resolution data (Sentinel-2 and SoilGrid). The results show that under saturated soil conditions (CN III), climate change increases peak discharge (Qp) by 20.1% and total runoff volume by 12.9%, whereas in less saturated soils (CN II), the relative increases are 28.7% and 22.6%, respectively, although with lower absolute values. Additionally, the temporal assessment (2017–2023) demonstrated hydrological stability when climatic conditions remain consistent, suggesting that climatic factors prevail over land-use changes under these conditions. However, critical areas were identified where soil degradation due to urbanization and deforestation increases runoff risk, as well as regions with improvements associated with reforestation and sustainable management, highlighting the effectiveness of these measures. This work underscores the importance of integrating distributed models, high-resolution geospatial data, and tools such as GPCN10 for automated CN calculation, providing a robust foundation for designing adaptive strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on watershed hydrology and promote sustainable water resource management.

This study examines the interrelationship between macroeconomic and oil sector variables using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model implemented in RStudio, with the aim of identifying patterns and dependencies that can contribute to a better understanding of the energy market. Data were collected and processed from April 2014 to December 2019, allowing eight key variables related to oil production, inflation, and fuel sales to be modeled and predicted based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Through the analysis of coefficients estimated in the VAR model, direct and inverse relationships between economic and energy variables were identified, evidencing their impact on economic stability and strategic planning of the sector. The results highlight the importance of considering these factors in the formulation of public policies and business strategies, promoting a data-driven approach to decision-making in highly volatile environments. This study provides a valuable quantitative tool to assess the effects of fluctuations in the oil sector on the national economy and suggests future lines of research to improve the accuracy of predictive models in uncertain scenarios.

This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of a pipeline for LPG transportation between Pisco and Ventanilla, Peru. In the context of increasing dependence on LPG imports, the decline in domestic production of natural gas liquids, and logistical disruptions caused by anomalous ocean waves, the pipeline emerges as a strategic solution to strengthen the country's energy security. The analysis considers investment (CAPEX) and operational (OPEX) costs under different scenarios, aligned with local and international regulations. The results show that, although the pipeline's total average cost exceeds that of maritime transport, its implementation mitigates critical vulnerabilities in the supply chain, ensuring continuity. The sensitivity analysis highlights optimization opportunities that could reduce costs by up to 2.6 USD/Bbl, improving the project's competitiveness. Beyond its practical applicability, this research provides a valuable theoretical foundation for future pipeline projects related to energy security. This study proposes strategies to ensure the pipeline’s feasibility, including the incorporation of state financial mechanisms and the development of partial segments to serve strategic areas in key energy nodes.

This study analyzes the economic impact of the suspension of oil blocks 8 and 192 in the Loreto region, Peru, during the period 2020-2023. It is estimated that this interruption resulted in a loss of approximately 623.58 million soles in foregone canon and overcanon revenues, which are essential for financing public investment projects in key sectors such as health, education, and infrastructure. This loss was quantified using the Arps decline curve model and the application of Law No. 21678, as amended by Laws No. 23538, No. 24300, and No. 26385. The results indicate that the hydrocarbons sector is a fundamental pillar of the regional economy, significantly contributing to Loreto's GDP and employment generation. However, instability in oil exploitation was influenced by various factors, including social conflicts, environmental issues, government decisions, and, in particular, the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These elements exacerbated the region's economic crisis, limiting the availability of public resources and increasing poverty levels. It is concluded that the suspension of oil operations had a direct negative impact on Loreto's socio-economic development by restricting the region's capacity to respond to emergencies and undermining the sustainability of regional growth.