Theory suggests that return plans shape migrants’ integration efforts and outcomes, but identifying this effect is challenging. After the Russian invasion in February 2022, more than 5 million Ukrainian refugees fled to other European countries. Initially, Ukrainian refugees expected a short war and Ukrainian victory. Expectations became more pessimistic as the war dragged on. As Ukraine banned men aged 18-60 from leaving Ukraine, this increased the incentives of households with teenage boys to be outside Ukraine before their sons turn 18. Early-leaving households did not anticipate this, enabling us to study the causal effect of gradually worsening return prospects by comparing observationally similar households with and without teenage boys. Using a 10-wave panel survey, we establish that parents with boys are more likely to work, work more hours, but do not engage in more host-country language learning. Parents also report lower return intentions among their teenage sons than daughters.

Immigrants from non-EU countries face considerable barriers in the German labor market. This paper develops a wage posting model to illustrate the underlying mechanisms and provides reduced-form evidence of the causal effects of EU citizenship on labor market outcomes. I exploit the 2004 enlargement of the European Union, which granted EU status to immigrants from ten Eastern European countries residing in Germany. Using a difference-in-differences framework as well as an event-study and rich administrative data from the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB), I compare the labor market trajectories of this group before and after enlargement with those of non-EU immigrants who did not benefit from such a change in legal status. The results show that EU citizenship increases wages by 3.6 percent. Unemployment rates increase by 0.7 percentage points. The effects are persistent over time.

We examine the impact of procuring services under a contract where a randomized research design serves as an incentive device. Immigrant job seekers were randomly assigned to either a private fund or public employment services, with the Private provider’s compensation tied to differences in average unemployment benefits and taxes between the two groups. We find that the private fund outperforms the public alternative, increasing earnings by 15%, improving job quality, and reducing the net burden on public finances by 12% over the three-year contract period. These positive effects extend to non-contracted outcomes and persist beyond the period during which the private provider’s incentives were in place. The effects are particularly pronounced for high-skilled participants. Our findings suggest that procurement contracts that credibly align the incentives of providers with public sector goals can significantly improve service quality.

The shift to remote work, with roots predating Covid-19, marks a major transformation of labor markets. This paper investigates its medium-run impact on workers’ labor market outcomes, exploiting plant-level variation in remote work agreements implemented between 2014 and 2017 in France. Using an event study design and rich administrative data, we find that access to remote work yields moderate wage increases and facilitates both occupational and geographical mobility. The associated rise in commuting distances suggests that remote work options alleviate job search constraints, allowing workers to seek higher-paying jobs. Our analysis further reveals that plant-level remote work agreements raise firm productivity, benefiting both incumbent and newly hired workers. Overall, our results underscore how remote work reshapes labor market trajectories through its effects on mobility, job search, and productivity.