Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference.
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Some information on the session logistics:
If not stated otherwise, the discussant is the following speaker, with the first speaker being the discussant of the last paper. The last speaker of each session is the session chair. (Exception: invited sessions)
Presenters should speak for no more than 20 minutes, and discussants should limit their remarks to no more than 5 minutes. The remaining time should be reserved for audience questions and the presenter’s responses. We suggest following these guidelines also in the (less common) 3-paper sessions in a 2-hour slot, to allow participants to move between sessions. Discussants are encouraged to avoid summarizing the paper. By focusing on a few questions and comments, the discussants can help start a broader discussion with the audience.
Only registered participants can attend this conference. Further information available on the congress website https://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/event/iipf/ .
Venue address: ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics & Management, R. Francesinhas 21, 1200-675 Lisboa, Portugal
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 17th Sept 2026, 11:06:43am WEST
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Daily Overview |
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A09: Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Default Location: Room 109 (Francesinhas 1) | |
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Assessing the Validity of the Self-Fulfilling Sovereign Default Model The University of Tokyo, Japan This paper investigates whether sovereign defaults in high-debt advanced economies can be attributed to a self-fulfilling mechanism, using the Greek debt crisis as a case study. Unlike models relying on the Method of Simulated Moments, we adopt a disciplined calibration strategy within a rigorous framework incorporating long-term bonds. We analytically characterize the "Crisis Zone" and demonstrate that the baseline model fails to replicate key moments, particularly spreads, because the welfare cost of temporary market exclusion is insufficient. To address this, we introduce two extensions: a partial default mechanism and a persistent state of liquidity dry-up. The extended model successfully replicates the high debt-to-GDP ratios and significant spreads observed in Greek data. Our findings suggest that the duration of market exclusion is a primary driver of default risk, implying that effective liquidity support must be credible in duration, not just in magnitude.
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