Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference.
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Some information on the session logistics:
If not stated otherwise, the discussant is the following speaker, with the first speaker being the discussant of the last paper. The last speaker of each session is the session chair. (Exception: invited sessions)
Presenters should speak for no more than 20 minutes, and discussants should limit their remarks to no more than 5 minutes. The remaining time should be reserved for audience questions and the presenter’s responses. We suggest following these guidelines also in the (less common) 3-paper sessions in a 2-hour slot, to allow participants to move between sessions. Discussants are encouraged to avoid summarizing the paper. By focusing on a few questions and comments, the discussants can help start a broader discussion with the audience.
Only registered participants can attend this conference. Further information available on the congress website https://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/en/event/iipf/ .
Venue address: ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics & Management, R. Francesinhas 21, 1200-675 Lisboa, Portugal
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 17th Sept 2026, 11:37:38am WEST
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Daily Overview |
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D12: Public Debt, Interest Rates, and Fiscal Sustainability Location: Room 113 (Francesinhas 1) | |
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Public Debt and Interest Rates Federal Reserve Board of Governors, United States of America U.S. debt has doubled over the last 25 years, implying potential effects for interest rates and both fiscal and monetary policy. Theory predicts that debt crowds out capital and increases rates. However, empirical estimates ignore how the composition and timing influence these effects. Using a life-cycle model, we show that while a 1pp increase in debt raises long-run interest rates by 1.4 bp regardless of the type of fiscal policy, the immediate response varies across policies. Debt-financed transfers are initially saved, dampening the immediate effect on interest rate, while debt-financed government consumption produces a larger immediate response. Simulating policy since the 2000s, we find that only half of the 170 bp eventual increase in interest rates has occurred, indicating that already accumulated debt will provide significant upward pressure on interest rates going forward. Thus, both the composition and timing of debt are important when evaluating the implications on interest rates.
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