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Session Overview
Session
B09: Microsimulation and Benefits
Time:
Wednesday, 20/Aug/2025:
2:00pm - 4:00pm

Session Chair: Snorre Skagseth, Statistics Norway
Discussant 1: Elena Herold, ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e. V.
Discussant 2: Takeshi Miyazaki, Kyushu University
Discussant 3: Snorre Skagseth, Statistics Norway
Discussant 4: Timo Meiendresch, Fraunhofer FIT

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Presentations

Unclaimed Benefits: Non-Take-Up of German Means-Tested Benefits

Timo Meiendresch1,2

1Fraunhofer FIT, Germany; 2University of Freiburg, Germany

This study estimates non-take-up rates for three German means-tested benefits and examines their determinants. While prior research has largely focused on basic income support, less is known about housing allowance (“Wohngeld”) and supplementary child benefits (“Kinderzuschlag”), despite their rising importance and related nature. Employing a microsimulation model based on official Mikrozensus data that replicates the German tax and benefit system, the analysis reveals higher non-take-up rates for housing allowance and supplementary child benefits compared to basic income support. Moreover, cross-benefit analysis indicates that participation in one scheme may affect engagement in others, while regression results offer novel insights into access barriers.

Meiendresch-Unclaimed Benefits-379.pdf


Earnings Around Divorce: Gendered Responses and Economic Drivers Across Relative Earner Statuses

Elena Herold

ifo Institut & LMU Munich

Understanding how divorce affects earnings is crucial for designing effective policies that promote financial stability. This paper investigates earnings responses to divorce and the mechanisms driving these changes, utilizing extensive pension and income tax data. Event study results reveal significant differences in earnings reactions on both the extensive and intensive margins between women and men. However, most of the gender disparity is driven by women being the secondary earner more frequently. To explore the mechanisms behind these patterns, I draw on a household model framework to highlight key changes in disposable income during the transition from marriage to divorce and analyze them using data on the universe of divorced tax filers. Leveraging variations in disposable income changes, the empirical analysis first examines the roles of relative and absolute income levels at the time of divorce. Second, variation in tax schedules and alimony payments is used to isolate policy impacts.

Herold-Earnings Around Divorce-128.pdf


Redistributive Effects of Consumption Tax and Income Tax: Evidence from Household Level Data

Takeshi Miyazaki, Liang Shuyi

Kyushu University, Japan

This paper examines the impact of Japan’s consumption taxes on the income distribution from 1989 to 2014. Using micro-level data from the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (NFSIE), we apply statutory tax rates to calculate exact consumption tax burdens for each household and measure its redistributive effect by Reynolds-Smolensky index. The results suggest that consumption taxes in Japan are regressive and thus increasingly offset the redistribution efforts made by income taxes. The fixed income and consumption approach further confirms that changes in household spending and saving patterns have magnified this anti-redistributive effect. The findings underscore the need for targeted policy measures to reduce the burden on low-income groups.

Miyazaki-Redistributive Effects of Consumption Tax and Income Tax-270.pdf


Predicting Behavioral Effects of Tax Policy by External Evidence

Snorre Skagseth1, Zhiyang Jia1, Thor O. Thoresen1,2, Trine E. Vattø1

1Statistics Norway, Norway; 2Norwegian Fiscal Studies (University of Oslo)

Behavioral microsimulation models can be used to supplement results from non-behavioral tax-benefit models in policy-making. However, the policy analyst may not always have access to a fully developed behavioral simulation model for the policy issue in question. Here we draw attention to an alternative, which implies describing behavioral effects by using response estimates from other studies. We refer to this approach as “using external evidence”. We illustrate how tax revenue and distributional effect estimates can be derived by integrating external tax elasticity estimates into a non-behavioral tax-benefit model. The framework is illustrated using two examples from Norwegian tax policy.

Skagseth-Predicting Behavioral Effects of Tax Policy by External Evidence-334.pdf


 
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