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If not stated otherwise, the discussant is the following speaker, with the first speaker being the discussant of the last paper. The last speaker of each session is the session chair. Presenters should speak for no more than 20 minutes, and discussants should limit their remarks to no more than 5 minutes. The remaining time should be reserved for audience questions and the presenter’s responses. We suggest following these guidelines also in the (less common) 3-paper sessions in a 2-hour slot, to allow participants to move between sessions. Discussants are encouraged to avoid summarizing the paper. By focusing on a few questions and comments, the discussants can help start a broader discussion with the audience. Only registered participants can attend this conference. Further information available on the congress website https://www.usiu.ac.ke/iipf/ .Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 12th July 2025, 05:51:24pm EAT
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Session Overview |
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G08: Demography
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Presentations | ||||
Aging and the Housing Market Uppsala University, Sweden As populations age, the demand for housing is changing. In urban areas with a relatively fixed housing supply, older households "aging in place" can exacerbate housing shortages for younger families. This paper examines the impact of an aging population on the distribution of housing in Stockholm’s housing market. Using Swedish administrative data, I am developing an equilibrium model of the housing market where households exhibit heterogeneous preferences for housing characteristics and face mobility frictions. I will recover households’ willingness to pay for different characteristics and simulate counterfactual scenarios to quantify how an aging population affects the housing market. I will also assess whether elderly households remain in their homes due to their costs of leaving outweighing their costs of staying or a lack of suitable alternatives. Finally, I will evaluate policy interventions to improve the match between family and house size.
Fertility Rate and Intergovernment Fiscal Policy in Korea Korea Institute of Public Finance, Korea, Republic of (South Korea) This paper analyzes how structural factors in Korean society influence birth rates using local government data. High private education and housing costs negatively impact birth rates, while rising public property values suggest income polarization affects childbirth. Over the past 20 years, efforts to boost household income—mainly through maternal employment—have also lowered birth rates, indicating a lack of synergy between work and family life. To address this, the paper proposes a dual policy approach: The central government should focus on structural reforms, such as reducing income inequality and restructuring the labor market, to improve socio-economic conditions. Meanwhile, local governments should implement autonomous fertility support policies to attract residents and invest in employment and education infrastructure to curb population decline. This combined strategy aims to tackle both short-term and long-term challenges in South Korea’s fertility decline.
Population Ageing And Its Impact On Public Expenditure, A Study Of Indian States. Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation, affiliated to Cochin University of Science and Technology, India This study examines the intricate relationship between population aging and public expenditure, focusing on Indian states. The findings confirm that as elderly population expands, the demand for healthcare services, pensions, and welfare programs intensifies, placing a growing fiscal burden on state governments. However, the fiscal impact of aging is not uniform across states; it is most pronounced in demographically advanced regions experiencing accelerated aging transitions. These states face the dual challenge of rising expenditure obligations alongside constrained revenue-generation capacities, exacerbating fiscal imbalances within India's federal structure. The study highlights the urgent need for targeted fiscal policies and institutional reforms to address these challenges. Key strategies include revisiting intergovernmental fiscal transfer mechanisms to account for demographic disparities, enhancing the efficiency of public health and social security systems, and fostering economic growth to counteract the effects of a shrinking workforce.
Family Structure, Population Change and Long-run Growth 1Osaka University of Economics, Japan; 2Osaka University, Japan; 3Hokuei Gakuen University, Japan; 4Kyoto University, Japan We consider two types of family model, rather than a representative agent setting, in the semi-endogenous growth model of Jones (2022). The paper provides an economic explanation for why birthrates are declining. We show that in an economy consisting of non-cooperative families, the partners have a free-riding incentive when considering the supply of child-rearing effort and thus the growth rate of the population is smaller than that in an economy consisting of cooperative families. This makes family size smaller and reduces the growth rate of the economy. We find that the competitive equilibria of either type of economy cannot internalize the population externalities on technological progress. The socially-efficient solution internalizes population externalities, enhancing technological progress, but labor effort for child-rearing is greater than the competitive equilibrium solutions. Hence, child-rearing should be subsidized to realize the first-best population growth rate which internalizes externalities arising from technological progress.
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