Conference Agenda

In 2019, almost 100 local governments in Poland voted to declare their localities "free from LGBT ideology." We study the effects of these declarations on migration intentions using unique data on domestic and international job search from a large global job site. Comparing counties with anti-LGBTQ resolutions to neighboring counties in a difference-in-differences design, we find that the resolutions increased domestic out-of-county job search by 12 percent and international job search by 15 percent, driven by European destination countries with high standards of LGBTQ rights.

Despite economic disparities, migration from developing to advanced economies remains low because people do not know whether and how they can migrate, are not allowed to migrate, do not want to migrate irregularly, or cannot afford to migrate. This paper examines how informing individuals about legal migration pathways affects aspirations for mobility and qualifications. We conduct an experiment in rural Senegal, providing information and basic assistance on the U.S. Diversity Visa Lottery, which offers medium- and high-skilled migrants access to permanent residence. The intervention significantly increases migration intentions and shifts preferences toward legal pathways. However, ineligible individuals, particularly those already contemplating irregular migration, show increased interest in irregular migration, which may be seen as an unintended consequence. Education aspirations increase only weakly at high baseline aspirations. Aspirations already surpass the visa policy requirements for most respondents, but participants lack the capabilities to achieve them.

This paper studies a place-based tax cut implemented in the Argentinean Patagonia. I examine the effects of this policy on wages and employment, and assess potential unintended consequences such as firm or worker reallocation across regions using employer-employee matched panel data and a stacked event study design. I also conduct firm-level analyses to explore how employers adjusted wages and employment in response to the reform. Preliminary results suggest the cumulative number of movers to the treated region increased after the policy. There is a positive wage premium for moving to Patagonia versus moving to other regions, although the magnitude of the premium decreases for moves after the tax cut. This finding is compatible with the idea of a higher portion of pay “over-the-table” for potentially treated workers. Ongoing analysis explores the mechanisms behind these effects and the broader welfare implications of place-based policies.

Refugees' return migration decisions are of great importance for both their origin and host countries. We examine whether geopolitical factors and international alliances directly impact micro-level migration decisions. To derive causal estimates of how the post-war security situation and economic prospects affect return decisions, we conducted conjoint experiments among Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries. In the experiments, respondents were asked how likely they expect to return to Ukraine under different scenarios. Territorial integrity and security guarantees are crucial, but economic prospects also play an important role. While the majority of respondents expect to return in the most optimistic scenario, only one in eight expects to return in the most pessimistic scenario.