Conference Agenda

In 2019, almost 100 local governments in Poland voted to declare their localities “free from LGBTQ ideology,” providing a unique setting in which government narratives suddenly changed, but the legal situation of targeted minorities remained the same. We study the impact of these resolutions on migration intentions using novel data on domestic and international job search from a large global job site. Comparing counties with anti-LGBTQ resolutions to neighboring counties in a difference-in-differences design, we find that the resolutions increased domestic out-of-county job search by 12 percent and international job search by 15 percent. The shock to beliefs about local social norms likely drives our results, as we find the largest effects in counties with relatively low prior support for far-right parties. We also present suggestive evidence that the rise in job search translated into actual migration, with the treated counties losing nearly one percent of their young adult population.

Despite economic disparities, migration from developing to advanced economies remains low because people do not know whether and how they can migrate, are not allowed to migrate, do not want to migrate irregularly, or cannot afford to migrate. This paper examines how informing individuals about legal migration pathways affects aspirations for mobility and qualifications. We conduct an experiment in rural Senegal, providing information and basic assistance on the U.S. Diversity Visa Lottery, which offers medium- and high-skilled migrants access to permanent residence. The intervention significantly increases migration intentions and shifts preferences toward legal pathways. However, ineligible individuals, particularly those already contemplating irregular migration, show increased interest in irregular migration, which may be seen as an unintended consequence. Education aspirations increase only weakly at high baseline aspirations. Aspirations already surpass the visa policy requirements for most respondents, but participants lack the capabilities to achieve them.

This paper studies a place-based tax cut in Patagonia, Argentina, implemented to correct a distortion from national income tax policy interacting with regional labor institutions. Using employer-employee panel data and firm-level analysis, I examine the policy's effects on wages and the spatial reallocation of workers and firms. While aggregate worker migration does not increase, the policy creates opposing wage effects: the premium rises for workers moving to Patagonia but falls for those switching jobs within the region. Firm-level analysis shows evidence of spatial reallocation, with accelerated growth among firms operating across both regions. These findings reveal a segmented labor market with opposing wage effects, a pattern difficult to reconcile with simple competitive models and points toward the importance of bargaining dynamics and firm heterogeneity.

Refugees’ decisions about returning are of great importance to both their origin and host countries. We examine whether geopolitical factors and international alliances directly influence return decisions. To derive causal estimates of how the post-war security situation and economic prospects affect return decisions, we conducted a conjoint experiment among Ukrainian refugees in 30 European countries. In the experiment, respondents were asked how likely they are to return to Ukraine under different scenarios. Territorial integrity and security guarantees are crucial, but economic prospects and combating corruption also play an important role. We estimate that, in the most optimistic scenario, half of Ukrainian refugees expect to return, while,

in the most pessimistic scenario, only 3% expect to return.