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Session Overview
Session
B03: Migration
Time:
Wednesday, 20/Aug/2025:
2:00pm - 4:00pm

Session Chair: Panu Poutvaara, ifo Institute and University of Munich
Discussant 1: Yogam Kom Tchokni, DIW - German Institut for Economic Research
Discussant 2: Luciana M. Galeano, University of Michigan
Discussant 3: Panu Poutvaara, ifo Institute and University of Munich
Discussant 4: Jan Gromadzki, Vienna University of Economics and Business

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Presentations

Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions

Jan Gromadzki1, Pawel Adrjan2

1Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria; 2Indeed Hiring Lab

In 2019, almost 100 local governments in Poland voted to declare their localities "free from LGBT ideology." We study the effects of these declarations on migration intentions using unique data on domestic and international job search from a large global job site. Comparing counties with anti-LGBTQ resolutions to neighboring counties in a difference-in-differences design, we find that the resolutions increased domestic out-of-county job search by 12 percent and international job search by 15 percent, driven by European destination countries with high standards of LGBTQ rights.

Gromadzki-Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions-121.pdf


Migration Aspirations and Knowledge About Legal Migration Opportunities

Yogam Tchokni1, Tobias Heidland2, Jens Ruhose3, Bernd Beber4, Mame Mor Anta Syll6, Stefan Leopold5

1DIW - German Institut for Economic Research, Germany; 2Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW); 3Kiel University; 4RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research; 5Kiel University; 6Université Gaston Berger

Despite economic disparities, migration from developing to advanced economies remains low because people do not know whether and how they can migrate, are not allowed to migrate, do not want to migrate irregularly, or cannot afford to migrate. This paper examines how informing individuals about legal migration pathways affects aspirations for mobility and qualifications. We conduct an experiment in rural Senegal, providing information and basic assistance on the U.S. Diversity Visa Lottery, which offers medium- and high-skilled migrants access to permanent residence. The intervention significantly increases migration intentions and shifts preferences toward legal pathways. However, ineligible individuals, particularly those already contemplating irregular migration, show increased interest in irregular migration, which may be seen as an unintended consequence. Education aspirations increase only weakly at high baseline aspirations. Aspirations already surpass the visa policy requirements for most respondents, but participants lack the capabilities to achieve them.

Tchokni-Migration Aspirations and Knowledge About Legal Migration Opportunities-277.pdf


Incidence Of Place-Based Policies: The Case Of The Argentinean Patagonia

Luciana M. Galeano

University of Michigan, United States of America

This paper studies a place-based tax cut implemented in the Argentinean Patagonia. I examine the effects of this policy on wages and employment, and assess potential unintended consequences such as firm or worker reallocation across regions using employer-employee matched panel data and a stacked event study design. I also conduct firm-level analyses to explore how employers adjusted wages and employment in response to the reform. Preliminary results suggest the cumulative number of movers to the treated region increased after the policy. There is a positive wage premium for moving to Patagonia versus moving to other regions, although the magnitude of the premium decreases for moves after the tax cut. This finding is compatible with the idea of a higher portion of pay “over-the-table” for potentially treated workers. Ongoing analysis explores the mechanisms behind these effects and the broader welfare implications of place-based policies.

Galeano-Incidence Of Place-Based Policies-441.pdf


What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict? Evidence From a Conjoint Experiment Among Ukrainian Refugees

Joop Adema, Lasha Chargaziia, Yvonne Giesing, Sarah Necker, Panu Poutvaara

ifo Institute and University of Munich, Germany

Refugees' return migration decisions are of great importance for both their origin and host countries. We examine whether geopolitical factors and international alliances directly impact micro-level migration decisions. To derive causal estimates of how the post-war security situation and economic prospects affect return decisions, we conducted conjoint experiments among Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries. In the experiments, respondents were asked how likely they expect to return to Ukraine under different scenarios. Territorial integrity and security guarantees are crucial, but economic prospects also play an important role. While the majority of respondents expect to return in the most optimistic scenario, only one in eight expects to return in the most pessimistic scenario.

Adema-What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict Evidence-183.pdf