Conference Agenda

When nearby regions have different tax rates, residents may travel to shop in the lower tax rate region. The extent of this activity is captured by the tax elasticity of border sales (TEBS). We collect 749 estimates of TEBS reported in 60 studies, and conduct the first meta-analysis of this literature. We show that the literature is prone to selective reporting: positive estimates are systematically discarded. Sales of food, retail and fuel are more elastic compared to sales of tobacco and other individual ‘sin’ products. Cross-border shopping is more prominent in the US—compared to Europe and other countries.

The relationship between taxation and trade is complex, with far-reaching implications. This paper explores strategies to support tax administration in West Africa. By combining micro and macro data, we found that trade integration can impact tax revenue, consistent with existing economic integration literature. However, our analysis also revealed weak institutional collaboration in managing trade-tax complexities. Notably, domestic tax departments in sampled West African countries showed limited understanding of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), whereas customs departments demonstrated greater awareness and capacity. To address these challenges, capacity-building strategies for revenue and trade officials should include training on optimal tax and trade policy design.

This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare impacts of various tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network. The scenarios include unilateral US tariffs, coordinated US-EU tariffs, Chinese retaliation, Europe's non-participation, and sector-specific versus broad tariffs.

Our results show that tariffs initially boost domestic output by making local goods cheaper. While consumption increases permanently, the output benefits are short-lived. Increased production costs and reduced global income negate the output gains over time. China has an incentive to retaliate and when it does so, welfare losses deepen for the affected partners. Additionally, the rest of the world suffers from reduced aggregate income regardless of direct involvement in tariff conflicts. Sector-specific tariffs are found to be less effective than broad tariffs by failing to protect non-targeted industries. Overall, tariffs appear inefficient for economic protection due to the high possibility of retaliation.

The European Union’s sanctions against Russia following the Ukraine invasion have reshaped global trade dynamics. While direct effects on sanctioning and sanctioned countries are intuitive, little is known about the effects on neutral third-party nations like South Africa. This study examines trade diversion and round-tripping of sanctioned products to and through South Africa using detailed administrative trade data. Moreover, we explore the effects of such trade at the firm and worker level via linked employer-employee data. Using a series of event studies, we analyze monthly transaction-level 6-digit product-level trade flows, revealing shifts in import and export patterns in South Africa and direct and indirect sanction parties.