The Condorcet paradox has been a significant focus of investigation since Kenneth Arrow rediscovered its importance for economic theory. Recent research on this phenomenon has oscillated between simulation studies, probability calculations based on hypothetical voter preferences, and empirical analyses often limited by unsatisfactory data. This paper presents the first comprehensive evaluation of 253 electoral polls conducted across 59 countries. Our findings demonstrate that the Condorcet paradox has virtually no empirical relevance: with only one exception, we find no evidence of cyclical majorities in any of the 253 elections. This result remains robust after statistical inference testing. Furthermore, this study provides insights into which parties are particularly likely to emerge as Condorcet winners and explores how these Condorcet winners assert themselves after elections.

While consumer sentiment is a key macroeconomic indicator tied to employment and inflation, its response to targeted government policies remains less understood. This study addresses that gap by examining the causal link between fiscal interventions and household confidence, using the 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion as a natural experiment. The CTC provided monthly payments that lifted incomes—particularly for lower-income families—until it abruptly expired in early 2022. Drawing on microdata from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey, we show that removing this crucial support triggered a pronounced drop in economic confidence, most severe among lower-income households and those with multiple children. In contrast, higher-income families saw no substantial change in sentiment. Our findings demonstrate that government policies like the CTC can have significant effects on consumer sentiment, underscoring their vital role for vulnerable populations who rely heavily on such financial support to maintain economic stability.

This study explored how financial access, tax perceptions, parental behaviors, and gambling activity influenced gambling propensity, intensity, and related financial outcomes, including indebtedness, among low-income individuals in Kenya. Utilizing a cross-sectional Financial Access dataset (2024) by Financial Deepening Sector (FSD), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and Central Bank of Kenya, Logistic, Ordered Probit, and Multinomial Logit regressions analyzed these relationships. Findings reveal parental gambling history significantly increased gambling propensity, while mobile money and formal credit access facilitated higher gambling intensity. Crucially, both gambling propensity and intensity significantly heightened "missed," "less," and "late" loan payments, strongly supporting the "no-profitability" hypothesis. Formal credit access emerged as a "double-edged sword," though financial literacy was protective and positive tax perception showed only minor impact. This research contributes granular empirical insights into gambling-to-debt pathways in a low-income Kenyan context. Policy recommendations include progressive gambling taxation and hypothecating revenues for financial literacy and debt counseling programs.

We conduct a randomized experiment comparing individual- and team-based performance pay among credit officers at a microfinance institution in Uganda. We find that tying rewards to individual or team performance has no significant effect on job performance (loan outcomes). However, turnover is substantially higher under individual incentives, with twice as many employees leaving compared to the team-based scheme. Survey data also reveals lower job and workplace satisfaction under individual incentives. Importantly, when individual incentives are combined with a portfolio rotation policy — which more equitably distributes opportunities for bonuses — the negative effect on turnover is mitigated. These results highlight the risks of individual incentive pay, which can reduce satisfaction and increase turnover. Introducing complementary policies like portfolio rotation can help address these unintended consequences and support better retention under individual-based incentive systems.