We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on formal sector employment in Uganda. Utilizing employee-level administrative tax data from the Uganda Revenue Authority, we describe the dynamics of employment as the pandemic evolved, seeking to better understand the various coping strategies undertaken by firms in the face of reduced sales and business activity. We find that over 10% of formally employed workers fully lost their incomes in the immediate aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Of those remaining employed, ~14% saw their salaries fall in the short term and by March 2021 over 9% were still earning less than pre-pandemic. We match these pay-as-you-earn records with firms’ income tax returns to better understand how firm characteristics affected the likelihood that different coping strategies were undertaken. Larger and more profitable firms pre-pandemic were more likely to retain their workforce and less likely to cut employee salaries.

This paper examines the labour market impacts of Finland’s initial COVID-19 subsidy program, designed to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic. Utilising a novel and comprehensive dataset and a judge-leniency instrumental variables design, we analyse the effects of these subsidies at both the firm and worker levels. Our findings reveal nuanced effects: the program increased the wage sum in the treated firms and decreased the risk of unemployment. On the other hand, the subsidies reduced labour productivity in treated firms, potentially hindering creative destruction. At the worker level, subsidised employees fared better in subsequent years than workers in non-subsidised firms, with slight increases in annual salaries and a higher likelihood of being employed. However, these workers were more likely to be employed in lower-productivity firms. This paper contributes to our understanding of the implications of fiscal interventions during crises and provides critical insights for shaping future economic policies.

We estimate the effects of a large targeted income support for the self employed during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. We leverage administrative data on all self-employed with survey data on hours worked and tax records on revenue. Using dynamic differences-in-differences models and quarterly data for the period 2018-2021, we exploit differences in eligibility based on whether or not the self-employed had a partner before the pandemic. We find an intention-to-treat effect of -12% for hours worked and -7% for revenue, compared to pre-pandemic levels. Hence, our results suggest that the targeted program can have adverse effects on the work effort of the self-employed.

The paper discusses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the EU, focusing on monetary compensation schemes aimed at preserving household income in 2021 and comparing them with 2020. It examines how these schemes absorbed income shock for employees and the self-employed. Utilizing microsimulation techniques and EUROMOD, it simulates labor market conditions and assesses the role of compensation schemes in stabilizing incomes, reducing inequality, and alleviating poverty across EU Member States. Compared to 2020, we find a decrease in the cushioning effect of monetary compensation schemes and an increased role of unemployment benefits. The overall stabilizing effect at the EU level was progressive, cushioning the shock for lower-income households more than for richer households. Without schemes, income inequality and poverty would have been higher, but their effect was relatively small overall due to limited usage in 2021 compared to 2020.