Conference Agenda

We study the shape of the global wealth distribution, using the Forbes List of Billionaires. We develop simple statistics based on ratios of log moments to test the default assumption of a Pareto distribution, which is strongly rejected. Hazard rates show that the log-transformed data instead follow a Gompertz distribution, which means that the data in levels follow a truncated-Weibull distribution. We further apply our model to the U.S. city size distribution and the U.S. firm size distribution. These distributions also show a rejection of Pareto in favor of (truncated-)Weibull. We discuss some theoretical and practical implications of our results.

This paper examines the choice of how aggregate wealth is measured, and how this affects our understanding of its distribution. Using two alternative data sources on the distribution of individual assets – income tax and survey data – we show that whether one targets a National Accounts measure of aggregate wealth, or survey-based aggregates, changes the share of wealth attributed to the top 1% by 1.4 percentage points in 2016-18. We argue that National Accounts – which have become the de facto data source for measuring aggregate wealth – are poorly aligned conceptually with the measure of personal wealth one would often like to target.

This paper studies intragenerational wealth mobility in Germany and Australia using longitudinal household survey data. Our results of rank-rank-correlations around 0.75 over a short period (4-5 years) indicate an elevated persistence of wealth in both countries. In Germany, the rank-rank correlation declines by ca. 7% (to 0.70) when extending the time horizon to 15 years, but there is no decline in the persistence of net wealth for individuals with positive initial wealth. In contrast, we observe a 20-25% decrease (to 0.55-0.60) in the persistence in net wealth in Australia, when the time span under consideration increases from 4 to 16/20 years. Investigating the reasons behind wealth rank changes using OLS regression reveals that income, education, inheritances, savings and portfolio composition are relevant factors for intragenerational wealth mobility.

This study revisits the trends and drivers of wealth inequality and accumulation in the Western world since the onset of industrialization. The empirical analysis reveals that aggregate wealth–income ratios were substantially lower before World War I than previously suggested. It also shows that wealth concentration decreased over the past century, remaining historically low in Europe, while it has increased in the United States. These patterns are primarily driven by the accumulation of housing and pension savings among middle-class households, rather than by reductions in the wealth of the affluent. The findings challenge the notion that unregulated capitalism inevitably leads to extreme wealth accumulation and question the idea that sustained wealth equalization necessitates capital shocks from wars or progressive taxation. Instead, they highlight the importance of institutions that enable ordinary people to build personal wealth in understanding the long-term development of wealth in Western societies.