Introduction
The last two years have seen a fundamental shift in the security of maritime supply chains, directly effecting the security of supplies for the German economy. Germany is the third largest economy in the world while at the same time almost entirely dependent on imports of natural resources to drive its production. Furthermore, its economic model focusses predominantly on exports. Both imports and exports in their vast majority are transported by sea.
From COVID-19 via the Russian invasion in Ukraine, to the effects of the attacks of the Houthi rebels on vessels in the Red Sea, Germany’s vulnerability with regard to its maritime supply chains has become strikingly obvious.
Methodology
This topic is approached by analyzing open-source literature, as well as shipping and trade data. The goals are to identify the impact of geopolitical events on maritime supply chains critical for Germany, i.e. identifying exemplary critical raw materials and products and how their supply is affected. Additionally, how are important ports affected by this new reality. To achieve this, the authors look at imports for Germany by sea – especially for the exemplary case of the port of Hamburg, data from shipping companies and freight rates to determine the impact of these threats. The aim of this study is to establish a framework of reference for comparisons and to monitor changes.
Findings
The research reveals that the global system of maritime transport fortunately has a degree of in-built resilience. For example, over-capacities in the shipping-market went a long way to cushion the blow to global supply chains, when the Houthi-attacks began in fall 2023. At the same time, a shift in trade-patterns with a clear geopolitical dimension is discernible – an indicator of more than just a temporary disruption caused by the attacks on shipping. Furthermore, the fact that chance seemed to have played a big part in softening the effects of these latest disruptions suggests that conscious efforts should be undertaken to analyze and monitor maritime risks more closely and increase resilience – reduce exposure and prepare for speedy recovery, regardless of the origin of ultimately inevitable disruptions, be they intentional, accidental or the result of natural disasters.
Discussion
The current realities show that the topic resilience of maritime supply chains has to become more of a focus for Germany. New concepts, models and frameworks for analyzing, monitoring and responding to a broadest possible range of potential disruptions need to be developed to make the German economy more resilient to threats.
Conclusion
The sea, maritime transport, maritime infrastructure, resources and the entire oceanic ecosystem are crucial to human development and the viability of modern societies. Accordingly, threats to maritime supply chains are of great importance. Especially with the proliferation to these threats driven by geopolitical rivalry, in combination with an increased likelihood of natural disasters as a result of climate change, promoting maritime resilience is a strategic imperative.