The energy transition will require vast amounts of mineral raw materials. Only a small part of this demand is likely to be covered by recycling. A large part of the current discussion has therefore centered on the question whether the mining industry can provide sufficient supply in this critical period of global development. This lecture briefly examines the magnitude of this issue, and then discusses current research aiming to improve our foresight on future mineral supply. The examples of gallium and lithium will be used to illustrate the most important questions as well as potential solutions.