We probabilify the scenario approach to legal proof. The scenario approach searches for the scenario that strikes the best balance in explaining the available evidence, in fitting to general background beliefs, and in its degree of internal coherence. Our account provides a unified measure of the three dimensions in terms of probabilities, and so is proof that the scenario approach can be probabilified. Indeed, our account can be summarized by a version of Bayes Theorem: the most likely scenario in light of the evidence is the best. We thereby provide a Bayesian justification for the scenario approach.