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PS19: Determinants and Population Patterns of Suicide
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The cost-of-living crisis and suicide rates: Time series analysis of data from 54 countries University of Melbourne, Australia Aims This study aimed to determine whether there is an association between the cost-of-living crisis and suicide rates. Methods We sourced country- and area-within-country-level monthly suicide data from official vital statistics or suicide surveillance systems from at least 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2022 (and, ideally, from 1 January 2016 to 30 June 2023), and population denominator data for the same periods. We sourced monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) data from the World Bank or countries’ statistics agencies. We calculated the yearly change in inflation as the percentage change in CPI for one month versus the equivalent month in the previous year. We estimated the association between yearly change in inflation (lagged by one month) and suicide rates for each country and area-within-country, using autoregressive negative binomial regression. We summarised results using a weighted mean. Results We obtained data on 1,372,994 suicides from 54 countries (52 country-level and 17 area-within-country-level datasets). At the country-level, there was evidence of an association between inflation and suicide rates for all individuals. For every 1.0% increase yearly inflation in the previous month, there was an average 0.2% increase in suicide rates. The association was strongest in those aged 30-49 and 50-69, who together might be regarded as working-age adults with economic responsibilities. For every 1.0% increase in yearly inflation in the previous month, there were 0.3% and 0.6% increases in suicide rates for those aged 30-49 and 50-69, respectively. This pattern held for males in these age-groups, with increases of the same magnitude. It also held for females aged 50-69, with a 0.8% increase for this sub-group. At the area-within-country-level, the picture was even starker. Conclusion There is a demonstrable association between the cost-of-living crisis and increases in suicide rates internationally. Public and social policies that improve people’s circumstances are critical. Climate change as a correlating factor in the variation of suicidality rates: the effect of temperature extremes in Lithuania Vilnius University, Lithuania The weather has always played a significant role in human health and well-being. However, due to climate change, shifted and/or disrupted weather patterns are creating new challenges for human health. Northern Europe is one of the fastest heating regions in the world. Climate change reveals a completely different perception of weather as a phenomenon itself. Therefore, rising temperatures and weather extremes could increase the potential risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviour. There is a growing number of research globally that climate change brings new challenges to the emotional and mental status of human beings. In Lithuania, the effect of cold and hot weather conditions on overall mortality is evident. However, coupling climate (extreme weather) and mental health (suicide rates) is only in the initial stages. This research focuses on the analysis of the relations between air temperature extremes and the daily numbers of suicides in Lithuania. It covers the period from 2000 to 2024. The overall number of suicides per day is the main criterion of analysis. Regional distribution, resident type, sex and age of the cases are used as additional criteria. We used the Universal Climate Thermal Index (UTCI) as an indicator of thermal conditions. UTCI is a universal and widely applied tool for describing the impact of thermal stress on the human body, and it is instrumental in health-related research. Temperature extremes are defined as UTCI values (5 and 95 percentiles), and higher than “strong” cold and heat stress UTCI categories. Moreover, the cumulative and lagging effects of heat (cold) are taken into account. The results revealed some connectivity between the daily number of suicides and extreme weather conditions. Therefore, in the near future, climate change could become an important factor in the variation of suicidality rates. Contextual Determinants of Suicide Mortality: A Scoping Review 1: University of Malaga, Spain.; 2: Autonomous University of Madrid, Spain.; 3: CIBERSAM ISCIII, Spain.; 4: Complutense University of Madrid, Spain. Suicide constitutes a complex phenomenon influenced by social, economic, and environmental factors beyond individual deliberate decisions. This scoping review, conducted following PRISMA-ScR guidelines, maps quantitative evidence published between 2000 and 2025 on suicide mortality and its demographic, social, economic, and environmental determinants, aiming to identify consistent associations and gaps in the existing literature. The review was conducted in January 2026 across PubMed, Scopus, SciELO, PsycINFO, Dialnet, and Google Scholar. Search strategies included combinations of terms such as "suicide," "social indicators", “socioeconomic factors”, “environmental determinants” and "mortality", identifying 35 quantitative studies that met eligibility criteria following screening. Ecological studies, spatial models, and temporal analyses predominated in national and international contexts, with particular emphasis on spatial and socioeconomic patterns. Findings consistently indicate higher suicide mortality rates among men, residents of rural or low-population density areas and coastal or mountainous regions, deprived populations with social fragmentation, and unemployed groups with low education and mental health problems. Social factors (e.g., divorce, low fertility rates, or social isolation) exert greater impact than economic factors (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate), particularly among women, whereas economic factors show greater consistency among men and youth. Environmental factors including altitude, presence of green/blue spaces, topographic isolation and urban proximity also modulate suicide risk, although these effects depend on the socio-spatial context. Such socio-spatial and socioeconomic patterns reveal persistent global inequalities, which a high Human Development Index (HDI) can mitigate except in extreme contexts (very high/low HDI). These findings underscore the need for territorially adapted and multilevel suicide prevention approaches, combining socioeconomic disadvantage reduction with interventions addressing environmental quality and equity in green infrastructure. Psychological Risk Factors for Suicide and Self-Harm Thoughts and Behaviours in the North Central Region of Nigeria: Translation, Validation, and Application of the Integrated Motivational-Volitional (IMV) Model University of Strathclyde Glasgow, United Kingdom Introduction: Suicide is a major global public health concern, yet theory-driven suicide research remains scarce in low- and middle-income countries. In Nigeria, cultural stigma, legal criminalisation of attempted suicide, and limited mental health infrastructure constrain research, disclosure, and prevention. The Integrated Motivational–Volitional (IMV) model identifies defeat and entrapment as key drivers of suicidal ideation, but its applicability in African cultural contexts is largely untested. Methods: Addressing these gaps, this study translated and validated Hausa versions of the Defeat Scale (DS), Entrapment Scale (ES), and Suicidal Behaviours Questionnaire–Revised (SBQ-R), and tested the IMV model in a Hausa-speaking population. Data were collected from 330 adults aged 18 years and above across four states (Nasarawa, Benue, Kwara, and Abuja). Results: Confirmatory factor analyses assessed factorial validity, and mediation analyses tested IMV pathways. All measures demonstrated good psychometric properties. The Hausa DS achieved optimal model fit after removal of three reverse-coded items, resulting in a refined 13-item unidimensional scale with excellent reliability (α = .92). The Hausa ES demonstrated a strong two-factor structure (internal and external entrapment; α = .88–.89), and the Hausa SBQ-R showed acceptable reliability (α = .71). Participants with suicidal ideation reported significantly higher levels of defeat, internal entrapment, and external entrapment than those without ideation. Mediation analyses revealed a culturally distinctive pathway: external entrapment fully mediated the relationship between defeat and suicidal ideation, whereas internal entrapment, despite being associated with defeat, did not significantly predict suicidal ideation. Conclusions: These findings provide the first empirical support for the IMV model in a Hausa-speaking Nigerian population and indicate that the defeat–entrapment–suicidal ideation pathway operates primarily through perceived external constraints rather than internal psychological struggle in this context. The specific interpersonal and structural sources of this external entrapment remain unclear, highlighting an important direction for future qualitative research. Generational Acceleration in the Age Of Onset of Suicidal Ideation, Self-Harm, and Suicide Attempts: Evidence from a National Survey 1: Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University Of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; 2: Orygen, Victoria, Australia; 3: Department of Epidemiology and Preventative Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia BACKGROUND: The onset of youth suicidal ideation and behavior is a critical predictor of future mental health. Across high-income countries, youth mental health has been deteriorating over recent decades. Yet evidence on whether suicidal thoughts and behaviours are emerging earlier across successive generations remains limited. OBJECTIVES: This study examines generational differences in the prevalence and age of onset for suicidal ideation, plans, self-harm, and suicide attempts by age 25 in a nationally representative Australian cohort. METHOD: Retrospective survival analyses were conducted using data from the nationally representative 2020–22 Australian National Study of Mental Health and Wellbeing (N = 14,753). Respondents were grouped into Generation Z (16-25), Millennials (26-41), Generation X (42-57), and Baby Boomers (58-76). Weighted Cox proportional hazards models estimated generational differences in time to onset, adjusting for demographic characteristics, childhood adversities, and mental health diagnoses. Stratified models assessed variation in risk factor effects by generation. RESULTS: One-in-five (19.8%) reported experiencing either suicidal ideation (thoughts and/or plans), self-harm, and/or attempted suicide. A clear net cohort effect emerged. Generation Z reported the highest prevalence and the earliest onset of these outcomes by age 25. Generation Z had four times the hazard of reporting suicidal thoughts, five times the hazard of reporting suicidal plans, 18 times the hazard of reporting self-harm, and three times the hazard of attempting suicide. Whilst diagnoses of mental health conditions were generally linked to younger onset, effects were stronger for Baby Boomers. Exposure to suicide in another was more strongly linked to a younger age of onset for Generation Z compared to older generations. CONCLUSION: Suicidal ideation and behaviours are emerging earlier with each successive generation, signalling a fundamental shift in the developmental timing of suicide risk. These findings highlight an urgent need for earlier, cohort-responsive, multi-sectoral prevention strategies that anticipate—not follow—the evolving risks for youth. Self-destructive behaviour among adolescents and young adults in wartime Shupyk National Healthcare University of Ukraine, Ukraine Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have become a powerful stressor for Ukrainian adolescents and young adults as trigger to the development of self-destructive behaviour (SdB) against a backdrop of depressive disorders. The aim: to investigate the formation of SdB at young age groups during wartime. Methods. We analyzed 194 patients with SdB combined with depressive disorders in 2022-2025, 14-21 years old (mean age: 17.54±2.49): 118 girls (60.8%), 51 boys (39.2%). We have identified each year as a period for studying. All patients were divided: 121 patients (62.37%) were in Kyiv (region) throughout the wartime period (Gr1), 73 patients (37.63%) were internally displaced persons in safer regions of Ukraine or refugees in Europe (Gr2). Results. We identified transformation of the SdB’ psychological basis in Gr1: from acute reactions of grief, panic during the first half of 2022 to sleep deprivation (due to frequent bombings) and irritation (caused by life's difficulties) in the 2023, up to conflicts within the family \ friends as the main cause in the 2024-2025. In Gr2, SdB were triggered by evacuation problems, loss of familiar lifestyle (in the 2022-2023), as well long-standing child-mother conflict (due to living together in difficult circumstances), loneliness and maladjustment to a new social life (in the 2024–2025). In group Gr1, a significant predominance of adjustment disorder (F43, ICD-10) was diagnosed (vs Gr2, p=.042). In both groups, girls are significantly more likely to engage in self-cutting \ excoriation (p=.001) against a background of hysterical-depressive symptoms, depersonalization-derealization syndrome. Boys predominantly experience anxiety-obsessive syndromes with a predominance of suicidal ideas (p=.000). In patients 14-17 years old (in both groups) was detected more severe depression (p=.036, by the Beck Depression Inventory) vs young adults (18-21 years old). Suicidal attempts (repetitive attempts) did more in Gr1 (vs Gr2, p=.002) and young adults vs adolescents (p=.046). | ||
