The negative outcomes of overeducation are well studied in the literature. Nevertheless, long-term effects of occupational mismatches on the employment biography are less clear. If mismatches are more than a temporary part of the allocation process on the labour market, they become a major driver of social inequality and economic outcomes.
In the case of Germany, the results of the literature regarding mobility and mismatches are contradictive. Several studies confirm the negative impact of scarring effects, while others found supporting evidence for the career mobility theory. In this study, we will focus on the long-term effects of the different types of mismatch regarding wage development over the employment biography and the persistence of precarious employment conditions.
Adding to the existing literature, we will not only observe formal mismatches, but a broad set of occupational mismatch states. Furthermore, we argue that due to the varying degree of standardisation of academic and vocational education training, the impact of occupational mobility on long-term wages vary between the training groups, depending on the mismatch type. We expect the negative effects of field-of-study mismatches to be higher for occupations with a higher standardisation, while the wage effects of a formal mismatch will be more severe for those with a lower standardisation.
To answer our research question, we are using the NEPS-ADIAB. This unique data set links the National Education Panel Survey biographies to the administrative data of the federal Institute for Employment Research (IAB).