Conference Agenda

Iraq is among the five world countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Its cultural landscapes and heritage are exposed to erosion, weathering, abandonment and, eventually, disappearance. An approach combining satellite and on-the-ground observations to investigate anthropogenic and climate change-related processes is being developed in the framework of the Italian National Research Council – UK Royal Society bilateral cooperation programme. The analysis focuses on a wide region spanning between the capital city of Baghdad and the south-eastern sector of the country, encompassing the Ahwar of Southern Iraq UNESCO World Heritage Site, and the Wasit governorate. The analysis workflow capitalises on decades of satellite imagery, including declassified panchromatic data from the United States Cold War Era HEXAGON (KH-9) programme, Copernicus Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 multispectral data, Planet Dove multispectral imagery, plus very high resolution scenes over selected priority sites acquired by commercial optical missions and the COSMO-SkyMed SAR constellation. A standardised image interpretation strategy is adopted to record features representing components of the ancient and traditional landscape of all periods, including tells, forts, canals, water bodies and wells. This includes longstanding landscapes used up until very recently. Landscape changes are captured via Interferometric SAR (InSAR) processing of yearly and monthly pairs of Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed scenes, and by computing time variations in surface reflectance and vegetation indices (e.g. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) across yearly pairs of Sentinel-2 composites. Country-wide snapshots of sectors impacted by recent dust storms are provided by Sentinel-3 data. The integrated methodology enables generation of satellite-derived products depicting occurred transformations, regional susceptibility and endangered heritage sites. Among the latter, this work showcases 2014-2023 yearly and 2023-2024 monthly change detection maps based on InSAR coherence, spectral and vegetation indices variation, and a regional scale zonation of areas impacted by dust storms occurred in 2022.

Extreme weather events linked to climate change pose an increasing threat to cultural and natural heritage (CNH), as well as to the safety of their users. Lack of appropriate actions, inadequate restorations and lack of management plans increase its vulnerability.

The present contribution aims at illustrating a WebGIS-based solution and tools specifically dedicated to the safeguarding of CNH exposed to extreme weather events and designed for the self-assessment of its vulnerability. Initially implemented in the framework of the Interreg CE projects ProteCHt2save and STRENCH, these tools will be further enhanced in the ongoing Interreg CE project INACO, which development is strongly based on a user-driven approach and the multidisciplinary collaboration among the scientific community, public authorities and the private sector.

The new risk assessment tools will provide hazard maps at European scale where CNH is exposed to heavy rain, flooding and prolonged drought. Hazard prone areas are assessed by the elaboration of specific climate extreme indices and by integrating data from Copernicus C3S ERA5 and ERA5 Land, NASA GPM IMERG, E-OBS, and future projections by using climate modelling.

Web based and mobile apps will be setup to allow users ranking the vulnerability of the heritage categories under investigation considering their susceptibility, exposure and resilience.

These tools will be tested on case studies representative of different CNH categories in three different environmental contexts linked to European river basin districts: sea/river shore, lake shore, and inland river shore.

The application of EO-based products and their integration with climate projections constitutes an outstanding innovation with a direct impact to the management of CNH, with high potentiality to be scalable to other sectors under threat by climate change.

By the achievement of the planned objectives, INACO is expected to target the needs and requirements of stakeholders and policymakers responsible for disaster mitigation and safeguarding of CNH in river basin district and to foster the active involvement of citizens and local communities in the decision-making process.

This presentation explores current research on coastal erosion projections for Kerkennah Islands in Tunisia, focusing on the culturally significant sites of Cercina and Borj el Hassar. Using high-resolution Pleiades 2 satellite imagery and shoreline analysis, a detailed study of the evolution over 20 years of the shoreline has been undertaken, showing the importance of using spatial imagery in order to monitor ongoing damage to cultural heritage. This research also serves as a dynamic model, allowing precise predictions of erosion impacts on Roman, Punic, and Medieval coastal areas in coming years. By simulating future shoreline changes, the study helps identify specific at-risk sites, offering valuable insights that can guide decision-making in heritage preservation and coastal management.

Furthermore, this ongoing work will seek to address the broader challenge of refining erosion projection techniques using high-quality satellite imagery, a critical need for many coastal areas worldwide, GIS while integrating new tools.

It is expected that the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with a digital twin of the shoreline will enhance the predictive capabilities of this research. AI-driven analysis refines the projections by continuously learning from new data, enabling more accurate and site-specific assessments of coastal erosion. This approach allows for finer work in forecasting the erosion impacts, helping to identify critical areas that require immediate attention or conservation measures. The combination of AI, spatial imagery, and digital twin technology offers an innovative framework for understanding and mitigating erosion risks at these historically significant sites.

By leveraging advanced AI tools and the digital twin created in 2024, the proposed future research will not only improve the accuracy of erosion models but also provide a replicable method for other vulnerable coastal regions. The study underscores the transformative potential of cutting-edge spatial technology in protecting cultural heritage from the growing threats of climate change and coastal erosion, demonstrating how digital twins and AI can play a pivotal role in informing policy and enhancing site management globally.

Finally, the data is hosted within the SIG AFRICA project which provides a geographical environment for archaeological sites, thanks to spatial orthoimages and the relief and hydrographic network obtained by space-based DSM/DSM. SIG AFRICA is a tool for facilitating exchanges between various communities concerned with the ancient past of North Africa. AFRICA accommodates archaeological work of various kinds and high precision, such as the study of the evolution of the coastline of the Kerkennah Islands at Cercina, exploiting spatial images, and ensure their transfer for studies leading to a global interpretation of a large region as part of historical studies or for the establishment of heritage preservation policies. The AFRICA project can contribute to archaeological studies, integrating many of the results, helping to determine new scientific subjects and identifying sites to be protected in the context of climate change. The project is enriched over time by its collaborative nature, which was intended from the outset. It will be open-access and available for public consultation.

This project leverages Copernicus Climate ERA5 historical data and climate projection products to assess the impacts of rising temperatures and sea levels on Malta, with a focus on cultural heritage sites. Temperature projections for the years 2040, 2070, and 2100 highlight an increase in the number of tropical nights and warm days, which are expected to exacerbate issues such as drought and erosion, posing significant threats to Malta's cultural heritage. The study also considers the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, including strong winds and heavy precipitation, as part of the broader impact of gradual climate change on these sites. By utilizing Copernicus Climate data exclusively, this work avoids the logistical and financial challenges associated with local ground stations and models, allowing for a scalable and replicable approach that can be applied in other regions.

In addition to temperature rise, the study includes an analysis of sea level rise risks in Malta, projecting flood risks up to 2100. This analysis integrates sea level rise data with a local digital elevation model to identify areas at risk of flooding. The resulting flood risk map is further combined with data on cultural heritage sites to pinpoint those most vulnerable to future climate impacts, guiding targeted preservation efforts.

To facilitate decision-making and long-term collaboration, the results are presented to local authorities through an interactive online dashboard. This platform, which features maps and graphical views, makes the complex Copernicus data accessible to non-expert users. Regular updates to the data and dashboard ensure that Maltese authorities can monitor changes over time and adapt their strategies accordingly. This approach underscores the critical role of global-scale climate data in regional risk assessment, planning, and the preservation of cultural heritage in the face of climate change.