E-commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spending and generates considerable economic profits in the developing world, yet its environmental impact remains underexplored. While online shopping reduces trips to physical stores and lessens individual vehicle usage, the rising demand for logistics
exacerbates congestion and intensifies strain on urban transport systems.
Using a comprehensive e-commerce and air quality dataset covering 283 Chinese
cities from 2016 to 2021, we investigate the net environmental impact of online
shopping by examining the change in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations in
response to the increased e-commerce demand surrounding the annual Singles’
Day shopping festival, an influential online retail discount event in China. We
employ Baidu Index search frequency data for keywords ”Tmall” and ”Taobao”
during the two weeks before and after the event as a proxy for city-level online
shopping activities, capturing the sharp increase in consumer demand triggered
by Singles’ Day. We find a sizable reduction of 5.97% in NO for every 10% increase
in online purchases immediately following the event. The effect is significant
but substantially smaller in magnitude (1.87%) in the long term, as city-specific
factors and broader economic activity are considered. To address concerns of
endogeneity, particularly the potential reverse causation that cities experiencing higher levels of air pollution tend to engage in greater e-commerce activity, we
use e-commerce service quality as a valid instrumental variable and include extensive city-level controls. Our result is also robust to additional covariates, different specifications, and alternative measures of online purchasing intensity. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that cities with lower concentrations of online suppliers and higher levels of e-commerce import activity experience greater reductions in NO2 levels.
higher levels of air pollution tend to engage in greater e-commerce activity, we
use e-commerce service quality as a valid instrumental variable and include extensive city-level controls. Our result is also robust to additional covariates, different specifications, and alternative measures of online purchasing intensity. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that cities with lower concentrations of online suppliers and higher levels of e-commerce import activity experience greater reductions in NO2 levels.
Our paper provides the first empirical evidence that online shopping benefits
the alleviation of NO2 concentration, suggesting that shifts in consumer behavior—prompted by the convenience and accessibility of online shopping—can
mitigate some of the negative environmental impacts typically associated with
traditional retail activities. We further investigate the redistribution of NO2 emissions driven by e-commerce, both within and between cities. These findings
contribute to a deeper understanding of e-commerce’s environmental footprint
and offer guidance for policymakers pursuing sustainable urban development in
a digital economy.