Conference Agenda

Formal education plays a crucial role in human capital accumulation and economic growth. Previous research shows that heat inhibits learning, with negative impacts on learning outcomes observed on days hotter than 26.7⁰C. However, these findings often do not account for acclimatization, adaptive behaviors, or potential non-linear relationships between temperature and learning outcomes. This study addresses these gaps. To this end, we link test scores and household data from 370,585 students across more than 120 regions worldwide who participated in the OECD’s PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) study with regional temperature extremes from the ERA5 climate reanalysis dataset. We focus on a relative heat stress index, classifying days as hot when their maximum temperature exceeds the regional 95th percentile threshold (TX95p) during the academic years preceding the PISA test. Through this approach, we examine the long-term effects of heat exposure on learning outcomes. Our findings indicate that hot days have a significant negative impact on test scores, with the marginal effect of the first hot day on average scores being -0.025 standard deviations (SD) of scores with diminishing impact of additional hot days. We also find that compared to the Average scores, the Reading scores are the most negatively affected (-0.032 SD, 28% larger), followed by Mathematics (-0.023 SD, 8% smaller) and Science (-0.015 SD 40% smaller). We further provide the first evidence that the marginal effect of hot days is heterogeneous across the student performance spectrum, with lower-scoring students being more negatively affected than their higher-performing counterparts. Our results confirm that increasing climate extremes will impair formal learning, highlighting the greater vulnerability of weaker students. Incorporating these findings into economic models is essential for understanding how climate extremes may hinder human capital formation and, consequently, long-term economic growth.

Racial segregation remains a persistent social challenge in cities worldwide. While public spaces promote diverse encounters, recent research suggests that extreme temperatures influence how much time individuals spend in these places. We evaluate whether such behavioral responses affect racial segregation, highlighting a previously unexplored channel between global warming and social welfare. Using mobile phone data on movement patterns to millions of locations in 315 US cities between 2018 and 2020, we estimate an index of experienced segregation in visits to different destinations between whites and other ethnic groups. We then exploit week-to-week variation in temperatures and the segregation index within cities to show that heat increases segregation, especially in individuals from lower-income areas and at places for leisure activities. A week with average maximum temperatures of 33°C in a city with moderate baseline segregation like Los Angeles moves the experienced segregation about 14% closer to the level prevailing in the more segregated city of Atlanta. Climate projections demonstrate that mitigation policy can have significant co-benefits in cushioning future increases in racial segregation.

This study examines the impact of climate variability on poverty vulnerability in Ethiopia, emphasizing the effects on per unit consumption and accounting for both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks. The work is particularly relevant to those interested in development challenges and poverty alleviation strategies in climate-affected regions. I address the specific question of how climate variability, alongside socioeconomic factors, contributes to poverty vulnerability at both household and regional levels. Using a three-round Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey (ESS) panel dataset comprising 3,313 households, I employ a two-level random coefficient model and a fixed-effects model to analyze these dynamics. The findings reveal that the relative contributions of climate variability to poverty vulnerability surpass those of socioeconomic factors, with this effect being more pronounced at the regional level than the household level. Additionally, poverty-driven vulnerability proves more severe than risk-induced vulnerability. This, in turn, exacerbates household-level vulnerability, as even minor changes in temperature, precipitation, and agroecological conditions significantly reduce consumption. Rural households, particularly those with larger families, higher dependency ratios, and older members, face disproportionate impacts. These results underscore the importance of integrating climate adaptation, sustainable agricultural practices, and social protection measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate variability on Ethiopia’s most vulnerable populations. Addressing these challenges is essential for resilience and sustainable development.

The global land carbon sink sequesters approximately 30 percent of annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating climate change and contributing to comprehensive wealth. However, its distribution varies significantly across regions. Russia, Indonesia, and the U.S. alone are responsible for almost 30 percent of the annual global land sink. Factoring in net land-use emissions and fossil fuel emissions, this picture changes, yet, even then 62 countries have a net positive contribution, i.e., sequestering more CO2 than they are emitting. The regional disparity in contributions to comprehensive wealth is amplified by differences in climate change impacts, as some countries bear disproportionately higher economic damages. To assess these variations, we derive estimates for the country social cost of carbon (CSCC) and combine these with country-level data on land sinks, net land-use change emissions, and fossil fuel emissions. Based on our main scenario (SSP2, RCP60, discount rate of 2.5%), we obtain an aggregated, median CSCC of USD 166.22/tCO2 and in turn the land sink's annual contribution to comprehensive wealth of 1981.61 bn USD with the main contributors as listed above. However, when accounting for the regional distribution of climate change impacts, our results show that India has the largest balance of transboundary carbon wealth at the net level of the considered CO2 fluxes, amounting to an annual value of 1084.77 bn USD. Our analysis provides estimates for the contribution of the land sink in particular and CO2 emissions in general to sustainable development and comprehensive wealth accounting.