Conference Agenda

The round goby, an invasive fish, have spread to Swedish waters from the Black and Caspian Seas. We investigate the effects on opportunities for future recreational fishery in Sweden. Data comes from a recreational fishing survey targeting the Swedish population. Effects of the round goby on other fish species was modelled as a function of its population and environmental factors. Values attached to recreational fishing were estimated using a travel cost approach. To estimate effect on recreational fishing catch and changes in consumer surplus from increase in the round goby population, an ex-ante situation is compared with an “ex post” situation. Overall impacts of the round goby on recreational fishing in Swedish waters are clearly negative. In terms of consumer surplus, an unchecked population increase of the round goby in Swedish waters will cause a negative effect of SEK 379 million, or about EUR 33 million, in present value terms.

The effective eradication and control of harmful species are crucial for agriculture and for the conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. Since harmful invasive species often spread over large areas, their eradication may necessitate cooperation among multiple agents, such as farmers, landowners, and countries. A key challenge is determining how the contributions could be allocated among the agents, such that no agent would benefit from unilaterally changing its contribution (Nash equilibrium). We introduce a dynamic game-theoretic model that incorporates invasive species population dynamics. Our findings reveal that, counterintuitively, in Nash equilibria, agents incurring lower annual costs from the species contribute more. Moreover, multiple Nash equilibria exist, and those with fewer contributing agents are more efficient, leading to faster eradication. This indicates that efficiency in managing biological populations often conflicts with fairness. Therefore, some agents may have to compromise on fairness for cost-effective project implementation, and policymakers and planners must balance fairness and efficiency when assigning eradication responsibilities among landowners or countries.

Governments have been left with large liabilities for cleanup at natural resource extraction sites after firms have declared bankruptcy. This research studies the impact of different forms of financial assurance on a firm's optimal actions over the full life cycle of a hypothetical natural gas well, in a world of uncertain natural gas prices, when firm bankruptcy may shift cleanup costs to the government. A firm's stochastic optimal control problem is described by an HJB equation with the natural gas price modelled as a stochastic differential equation. The impact of financial assurance is examined in relation to firm investment decisions, the cleanup liability imposed on government and resource taxation revenue. A Cash Deposit and Surety Bond are contrasted with the case of no financial assurance requirement. The ``fair" fee (assuming the absence of arbitrage opportunities) is determined for the Surety Bond issued by a third party. Numerical results demonstrate that in the presence of distortionary taxes, there is a trade off between indemnifying the government against cleanup costs versus maintaining government tax and royalty revenues. A numerically plausible case is presented in which the total value of the natural gas well (to the firm and the government) is not increased by the imposition of a strict form of financial surety.

Organized crime networks dominate the entire supply chain of wildlife trafficking, making the scale and operations of these illicit activities challenging to fully comprehend. Port seizures reveal that trafficking syndicates smuggle products from multiple endangered species by concealing them within shipments of legitimate goods. This study develops a unique ecological-economic model to generate insights into the planning and logistics of contraband shipments and examine the consequences for species’ populations. The model is applied to a case involving pangolin scales and elephant ivory smuggled from Africa to East Asia’s black markets. Given the clandestine nature of illicit trade, the model is couched in a partially-observable system setting to yield estimates of shipment frequency, contraband composition, and revenue streams. Results indicate that trafficking is largely immune to variations in shipping costs and black-market prices. Improving detection measures emerges as the most effective strategy to curtail trafficking. The model integrates species population dynamics and demonstrates that illicit trade can inflict a higher extinction risk on some species than others. These findings emphasize the need for holistic conservation strategies that address the trafficking of multiple species concurrently, rather than single-species approaches, to effectively mitigate the broader impacts of environmental crime.