Conference Agenda

We conduct a field experiment to test whether informational messages can nudge organic consumers toward purchasing “greener” products that support climate change adaptation. Leveraging data from a large Italian online shop of organic products, we use pasta as a case study to examine consumer responses to information about an ancient durum wheat variety with superior drought tolerance compared to modern wheat. We test two types of messages that frame climate adaptation as achievable through everyday choices: a colloquial information that adopt a relatable tone and a science-based message that presents evidence with visual elements. We find that the colloquial message increases the market share of “greener” pasta by 13%, while the science-based message is effective only among highly environmentally conscious consumers. Effects persist for at least three months and are stronger among women, younger individuals, and those with higher education. The effect of colloquial messaging is amplified among consumers previously experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions. We observe a backfire effect among the greenest consumers, i.e. those who were already predominantly purchasing ancient pasta.

Many smallholder farmers in developing countries rely on memory and experience alone to make planting and investment decisions. For those with limited access to advanced technology and financial services, errors due to memory inaccuracy and faulty forecasts can impact welfare. Using a recall experiment, survey data, and secondary data from various sources, I study farmers' recall and forecasts of rainfall, agricultural output, and crop prices in Burundi. While I find evidence of recall inaccuracy and decay, farmers’ recall accuracy for the main crop of each season is high and remains stable over time. However, recall is subject to memory interference from non-agricultural events. I also explore the link between recalled and forecasted values, providing evidence of long-lasting effects in how farmers form their forecasts. Finally, I evaluate the accuracy of farmers' forecasts. I show that while price forecast errors can be significant, the portion attributable to recall inaccuracy is small. Farmers' forecasting behavior is best described by a mean absolute error loss function. My study provides a detailed assessment of how smallholder farmers use past information to form their forecasts and identifies limitations in both memory and forecasting.

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I study how Nigerian mafias exploit the vulnerability of people affected by climatic shocks through human trafficking to increase their illicit activities in Italy. Exploiting two empirical strategies, a shift-share IV and a difference-in-differences approach, I find that climatic shocks occurring in Edo State result in an increase in crimes related to human trafficking in Italy. The effect on crimes becomes significant after three quarters and lasts up to three years. Additionally, it is strongly correlated with the density of Nigerian communities in Italian provinces, suggesting that social networks play a key role in driving trafficking-related crimes. My findings indicate that climatic shocks can have nontrivial implications for organized crime.