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Forests for the future: a policy discussion on the costs and benefits of negative FOLU emissions (HYBRID)
Time:
Monday, 16/June/2025:
4:00pm - 5:00pm
Session Chair: Ioannis Tikoudis, OECD Session Chair: Elisa Lanzi, OECD
Location:Auditorium B: Frøystein Gjesdal
Session Abstract
Forests are indispensable in mitigating climate change, serving as the second most important type of carbon sink, after oceans. According to FAO, more than 660 gigatons of carbon, which correspond to 2400 gigatons of CO2, are stored in forests. As countries prepare to submit the third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, questions emerge regarding the speed at which emissions from hard-to-abate sectors can enter a net-zero pathway. Negative emissions from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) have gained attention as potential strategies to offset emissions from off-road transport, industrial processes and agriculture. However, reforestation and afforestation have continued uninterrupted for at least 40 years and the opportunity cost of drastically reversing this trend remains largely unexplored, both in the theoretical sphere as well as in the public discourse.
This session will critically examine the potential for negative FOLU emissions to contribute to achieving the climate goals stated in the Paris Agreement from a global perspective. It will delve into the opportunities emerging during the third round of NDCs, as well as the barriers that the economics and the geopolitical context impose to such an endeavor. The session will consult a panel of international experts from academia, business and the policy-making world to collect evidence-based perspectives on the barriers and enablers of such an endeavor. The panel presentations and the discussions will help obtain new insights, highlight knowledge and communication gaps, and identify areas of future research.
Questions to be explored in the session include:
• What are the main trends in forest carbon sinks, and what are the most plausible projections given current NDCs?
• To what extent is technically feasible to drastically expand forest carbon sinks in the critical timeframe to 2050?
• Which emissions are economically more efficient to offset via carbon sink expansion instead of eliminating them? Where is economically most efficient to expand forests?
• Can forest carbon sink expansion be reconciled with food security? What is the role of food producers, governments, and dietary preferences?
• What international economic mechanisms could be the most efficient means to incentivize forest conservation and reforestation in developing countries?
Presentations
Forests for the future: a policy discussion on the costs and benefits of negative FOLU emissions
Chair(s): Ioannis Tikoudis (OECD), Elisa Lanzi (OECD)
Presenter(s): Brent Sohngen (The Ohio State University), Arild Angelsen (Norwegian University of Life Sciences), Alice Favero (RTI), Ioannis Tikoudis (OECD)
