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Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 10th Sept 2026, 06:50:42pm CEST (Norway)

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Daily Overview

Session

Preferences, risk, and environmental policy
Location: Lab 2
Session Chair: Ibrahim Tahri, International Institute for Applied System Analysis

Presentation 3

Assessing Carbon Market Volatility: A Seismological Approach to the EU ETS Dynamics

Andrea Flori¹, Beatrice Federica Paolella¹, Alessandro Spelta²

1: Politecnico di Milano, Italy; 2: University of Pavia, Italy

Discussant: Ibrahim Tahri (International Institute for Applied System Analysis)

This study examines carbon market volatility within the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) by applying the Omori law, traditionally used in seismology, to analyze financial market responses to external events. We assess pre-shock and after-shock volatility patterns of EUAs (European Union Allowances) futures contracts from 2008 to 2024, categorizing events into five classes - Financial Events, Policy and Institutional Milestones, Extreme Environmental Events, Geopolitical Tensions and Disruptions, and Energy Market Shocks - and enabling a comprehensive analysis of market reactions across different types of shocks. Results highlight significant differences in market responses, largely driven by event predictability. Financial Events, i.e., the December EUA futures expirations, and Policy and Institutional Milestones show strong anticipatory behavior and rapid post-shock stabilization. Conversely, unforeseeable events, such as Extreme Environmental Events or Geopolitical Tensions and Disruptions, are associated with delayed market reactions and prolonged volatility dissipation. The analysis highlights the critical role of market structure and participant behavior in modulating volatility dynamics, shedding light on the resilience of the EU ETS to external disturbances.