Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 10th Sept 2026, 07:04:49pm CEST (Norway)
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Daily Overview |
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Thematic Session 6: Growth with Transitions, Tipping and Climate Shocks (HYBRID) Location: Auditorium M: Jan Mossin Session Chair: Alexandra Brausmann, University of Vienna Session Chair: Lucas Bretschger, ETH Zurich | |
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Misfortunes Never Come Singly: Managing the Risk of Chain Disasters 1: University of Vienna, Austria; 2: ETHZ; 3: ETHZ This paper delves into repercussions of contagion effects for optimal public policy. We develop a novel dynamic stochastic framework, where disaster arrivals are modeled via the Hawkes process which possesses a self-excitation mechanism. We derive analytical solutions showing that the optimal policy consists of devoting a stochastic fraction of output to disaster-mitigation. The mitigation propensity is an increasing function of the Hawkes intensity and essentially tracks disaster arrivals implying that the policy is reactive. This result is in contrast with the existing literature, which does not take into account the possibility of contagion and therefore finds a constant mitigation propensity to be optimal. | |