Conference Agenda

Agricultural expansion and deforestation are major drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) seeks to reduce deforestation-related emissions by focusing on selected deforestation-risk agricultural commodities. This paper examines the potential effects of the EUDR on international trade and global GHG emissions, particularly investigating leakage and displacement effects. Combining a land-balance model and the integrated assessment model GCAM, we assess the agricultural sector’s contribution to deforestation, identify high-risk countries and sub-regions, and conduct an ex-ante analysis of the possible effects of policy implementation. Our results indicate that, although the regulation has a limited impact on reducing deforestation levels, it can curb land use change (LUC) emissions and limit agricultural expansion in critical regions when implemented stringently and in coordination with other countries. However, the policy also leads to emissions leakage and trade and production diversion, which reduces its global mitigation potential, underscoring the need for broad, coordinated international efforts to effectively address deforestation.