Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Fisheries and oceans Location: Auditorium Q Session Chair: Benjamin Blanz, University of Hamburg | |
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Adding the risk of stock collapse over time to stock assessments and harvest allocation decisions 1: University of Hamburg, Germany; 2: National Centre for Effectiveness Science, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 343 Université Avenue, P.O. Box 5030, Moncton, NB, E1C 9B6 Canada; 3: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Gulf Fisheries Centre, Moncton, NB E1C 9B6, Canada. Globally, many fisheries have experienced collapse even though most of these fisheries had management plans with harvest control rules and were supported by scientific modelling that explicitly accounted for uncertainty. Recognizing that an informed decision on risks of a stock collapse versus harvest is only possible when the outcomes of the technical measures are described explicitly. We propose that the cumulative probability of stock collapse over a range of harvest levels would provide a perspective of the future consequences of harvesting decisions. Adding to the harvest level negotiations the consideration of how long a fishery should sustain the livelihoods of fishers may provide managers, fishers, and other stakeholders with a more tangible understanding of the risks within the context of precautionary principles in decision-making. We use a time series from the Canadian Cod fishery of the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, from which we construct and calibrate a simplified model as an emulator of more comprehensive models to demonstrate the approach. The implications of adding an analysis of the probabilities of stock collapse for a range of harvest levels and using a risk matrix to inform decision-making are discussed for four selected years 1974, 1986, 1993, and 2017. | |