Conference Agenda

Current climate polices to maintain the global mean temperature below 1.5–2 ℃ rely heavily on removing carbon from the atmosphere and particularly on bioenergy, carbon capture, and storage (BECCS). We develop a generic model and a high-dimensional empirical model for combining BECCS and carbon enhancement in existing forests. Our generic model reveals a capture and storage unit cost level above which the properties of maximizing the values of wood production and carbon sink appear opposite to those in the current models without carbon capture and storage. Our high-dimensional empirical model solved by reinforcement learning includes a detailed model on wood production economy, an individual-tree-based mixed-species model on forest growth, a 15-state variable model for carbon in forest soil, and a realistic description of biomass use for wood products and bioenergy. Using current estimates for carbon price and unit costs of capture and storage, we obtain the result that a higher carbon price decreases rotation length in boreal forestry, increases wood production and its value, and decreases carbon stored in trees and forest soil. Integrating carbon enhancement in forests and carbon capture and storage aids in mitigating potential adverse effects of carbon capture and storage on land use, food prices and biodiversity. However, it is possible that BECCS benefits wood production while climate change mitigation suffers.