Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Machine learning and causal analysis in environmental economics Location: Auditorium P: Finn Kydland Session Chair: Gabriele Casalino, KU Leuven | |
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Long-term distributional effects of carbon pricing - A novel modeling approach 1: Fraunhofer ISI; 2: RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Germany; 3: Ruhr University Bochum; 4: Bochum University of Applied Sciences In this paper, we present a new methodological approach to examine the long-term cost burden of carbon pricing, considering heterogeneous technology adjustments and two different price paths. In particular, we link an energy systems model with a micro-simulation model based on random forests and analyze the distributional effects in the German heating and transportation sectors up to 2050. Our analysis shows that there will be a sharp decline in the use of fossil fuels after 2030, especially among low-income households. We find that initially, carbon pricing has largely regressive effects that can be reversed by redistributing revenues via a lump-sum payment. Due to the heterogeneous nature of technology adoption rates, we still observe distributional effects within income quintiles for both price paths. A high carbon price path leads to a higher cost impact in 2030, which afterwards declines due to investments in climate neutral technologies. The low price path has a steady average cost burden, which is significantly lower in 2030, but remains high up until 2050. | |