Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Climate change impacts: health, food, and migration Location: Auditorium D: Anna Mette Pagaard Fuglseth Session Chair: Jakob Hans Wedemeyer, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | |
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Improving Weather Forecast Accuracy Limits Mortality from Climate Change 1: Department of Economics, University of Oregon; 2: Department of Economics, University of Arizona, NBER, and CEPR; 3: High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University; 4: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University and IZA; 5: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University People use weather forecasts to limit mortality from extreme temperatures, but relying on weather forecasts leaves them more exposed to errors in those forecasts. Exploiting daily variation in temperatures and temperature forecast errors between 2004 and 2022, we show that the U.S. population especially relies on forecasts on hot days. Extrapolating to the end of the 21st century, we estimate that climate change will cause an additional 3,600 heat-related deaths per year as the frequency of hot days increases. Disentangling the effects of predicted and surprising heat shows that a large fraction of these deaths can be prevented as they are due to inaccurate forecasts. We predict that mortality on hot days can be reduced substantially to 900 deaths per year if forecast accuracy continues to improve at it’s historical rate. In ongoing work, we elicit experts’ opinions about the likely future improvement in forecast accuracy. | |