Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Climate impacts Location: Auditorium B: Frøystein Gjesdal Session Chair: Maximilian Huppertz, Bank of England | |
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When Supply Chains Run Dry: Spillovers Intensify the Economic Impact of Water Scarcity University of Graz, Austria Climate change increasingly threatens global production networks. In this paper, we develop a novel framework to capture how anomalies in water availability, occurring anywhere around the globe, can propagate along supply chains and reduce output in distant regions. Using multi-regional input-output data, high-resolution climate information, and subnational gross value added (GVA) across Europe, we show that accounting for supply chain spillovers more than doubles local damage estimates compared to purely local climate measures. Our dynamic panel estimates reveal that water scarcity shocks transmitted via supply chains significantly lower GVA contemporaneously and exert persistent effects over a decade. We find that Europe as a whole lost €12.6 trillion in GVA from 2000 to 2019 due to water scarcity shocks when accounting for supply chain spillovers. Moreover, the average NUTS-3 region would have produced nearly 5% more in GVA in 2019 had these shocks not occurred. Our results underscore the importance of integrating supply chain interlinkages into climate impact assessments and highlight the need for adaptation measures to increase the climate-resilience of global supply chains under global warming. | |