Conference Agenda

Community-based forestry is widely promoted as a means to balance conservation with local development, yet its impact remains uncertain. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where over half of the Congo Basin rainforest is located, local community forest concessions (LCFCs) have expanded since 2017 as part of the country’s commitment to protect 30\% of its land by 2030. LCFCs are expected to curb deforestation by securing tenure, encouraging sustainable land use, and fostering local stewardship. However, weak governance, funding constraints, economic motivations driven by livelihood needs, and misalignment between local and external conservation priorities pose risks to their effectiveness. We examine whether these concessions have influenced deforestation and forest degradation by leveraging annual, high-resolution spatial data on forest cover change and employing a staggered difference-in-differences approach alongside synthetic control methods.

Our analysis yields robust estimates indicating no statistically significant effect of LCFCs on deforestation or forest degradation up to this point. Moreover, we do not find evidence of heterogeneous effects when considering different types of LCFCs, including those supported by development-focused or conservation-focused NGOs, or those located in areas with varying population densities. The absence of immediate impacts does not imply failure, nor does it rule out the possibility of unintended negative effects, as the early dynamics of LCFCs are not necessarily representative of their medium and long-term outcomes. However, we provide evidence that the legal transfer of tenure did not lead to sustained increased deforestation or forest degradation in the initial years.

This lack of early impact may also reflect the slow pace of LCFC implementation. Many concessions are still in the early stages of formalization, as evidenced by the limited number of publicly available simple management plans, a key requirement for effective land-use governance. As LCFCs continue to expand, understanding their early dynamics is crucial for refining policies that enhance their effectiveness. Continued tracking and analysis of LCFCs will be critical in determining whether, and under what conditions, community forest management can contribute to effective forest conservation in the DRC.