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Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 10th Sept 2026, 07:08:12pm CEST (Norway)

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Daily Overview

Session

Risk, uncertainty, and climate adaptation
Location: Lab 1
Session Chair: Christian Traeger, University of Oslo

Presentation 1

Early Warning Systems

Daniel Heyen^1,2, Florian Diekert³, Frikk Nesje^4,5, Soheil Shayegh⁶

1: RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau, Germany; 2: Chair of Integrative Risk Management and Economics, ETH Zurich; 3: Centre for Climate Resilience, University of Augsburg; 4: Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen; 5: CESifo Research Network, Munich; 6: RFF‐CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy

Discussant: Philippe Bontems (Toulouse School of Economics and INRAE)

Complex systems can undergo sudden, irreversible changes when critical thresholds—known as tipping points—are crossed. While statistical indicators can serve as early warning signals (EWS) of such transitions, their integration into decision-making frameworks remains limited. This paper develops a theoretical framework connecting early warning signals to optimal management of systems prone to tipping. We translate early warning indicators into the formal language of management science, introduce an analytically tractable approximation of tipping indicators, and derive practical insights about the optimal design and value of early warning systems. Our analysis reveals how the optimal design and value of these systems depend on both the magnitude of potential damages and decision-maker risk preferences, providing a foundation for incorporating early warning signals into management decisions.