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Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 10th Sept 2026, 07:07:38pm CEST (Norway)

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Daily Overview

Session

Integrated assessment models and scenario analysis
Location: Auditorium Q
Session Chair: Vito Avakumovic, University of Hamburg

Presentation 1

Emulating an Integrated Assessment Model to Project Long-Term Emissions and Carbon Dioxide Removal Pathways to 2300

Katsumasa Tanaka^1,2, Weiwei Xiong¹, Leon Merfort³, Nico Bauer³

1: Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), France; 2: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan; 3: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany

Discussant: Johannes Koch (Potsdam Institue for Climate Impact Research)

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are essential tools for exploring climate change mitigation pathways, but they typically generate emission scenarios only until 2100. To address the growing need for longer-term scenarios beyond 2100, we developed an emulator of the IAM REMIND-MAgPIE. This emulator, emIAM, captures the behavior of the IAM by using marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for three major greenhouse gases (GHGs), two sectors, and five carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques. We coupled emIAM with the reduced-complexity climate model ACC2 to generate a suite of internally consistent scenarios extending to 2300, targeting a range of temperature stabilization levels with varying overshoot profiles. These scenarios go beyond previously employed idealized approaches by incorporating the emulated dynamic response of the IAM and by explicitly characterizing CDR deployment pathways. Our scenarios serve as input to Earth System Models (ESMs) investigating the long-term consequences of climate change mitigation strategies, particularly the implications of CDR deployment and associated Earth system dynamics over centennial timescales. Furthermore, the modular design of the IAM emulator facilitates coupling with other reduced-complexity climate models, broadening its applicability for exploring climate-economic interactions.