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Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 10th Sept 2026, 07:06:13pm CEST (Norway)

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Daily Overview

Session

Climate change impacts: natural disasters
Location: Auditorium N: Agnar Sandmo
Session Chair: Max Tesselaar, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Presentation 3

Disaster-induced import dynamics: Evidence from South African floods

Justyna Jantos¹, Krisztina Kis-Katos¹, Marina Dodlova², Anna Kochanova³

1: University of Göttingen, Germany; 2: University of Münster; 3: Cardiff University

Discussant: Max Tesselaar (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

This paper examines the impact of floods on regional import dynamics in South Africa. Natural disasters like floods can disrupt firms' production activities, hindering their participation in import markets. However, firms may increase imports to offset disruptions in their domestic supply networks. Our study explores this adjustment behavior using administrative firm-level and customs transactions data from South Africa. Analyzing a monthly panel of import aggregates and market entries across local municipalities from 2013 to 2021, we find that floods generally deter new firms from entering import markets, yet the disruption to domestic supply chains prompts firms to seek alternative suppliers abroad. Although overall average import values remain unchanged, firms adjust by increasing imports of capital goods. Our results also show stronger import responses from the European Union following supply chain disruptions due to floods. Additionally, firms in manufacturing or mining tend not to respond to flood shocks by adjusting their import levels. Instead, such adjustments are more likely to occur through the trade sector. Such adjustment dynamics would be overlooked when focusing solely on manufacturing firms' data.