Conference Agenda

This paper examines how earthquakes affect social cohesion using the 2012 major Italian earthquake as a case study. While some theories suggest that disasters strengthen social bonds and others indicate social disintegration, recent research points to more complex dynamics where disasters simultaneously strengthen in-group ties while eroding connections with diverse groups. We address the limited causal evidence on this phenomenon by analysing a unique dataset that captures multiple dimensions of social cohesion through behavioural measures: racial hate, hit-and-run accidents and marriages. Difference-in-difference and event study estimates reveal that the earthquake triggered immediate behavioural shifts toward self-preservation: racial hate and hit-and-run accidents increased, marriages declined. Over time, hit-and-run accidents quickly returned to pre-earthquake levels, while effects on racial hate and marriages persisted. This evidence suggests that the earthquake's initial trigger towards self-preservation adjusts differently across behaviours: adherence to safety social norms recovered quickly while intergroup tensions and personal commitments showed lasting changes. Testing different earthquake characteristics reveals that visible and measurable destruction had the strongest and most persistent impact on social cohesion. The earthquake's impact on social cohesion varied with settlement size: while medium and small municipalities experienced significant behavioural changes, major urban centres demonstrated stability. Additional analysis using city-specific data on Intimate Partner Violence and property crime further confirms this pattern, as these measures also remained stable in affected cities, suggesting broader resilience in urban settings. Our findings advance understanding of post-disaster social dynamics by demonstrating how different dimensions of social cohesion respond and evolve distinctly after a natural disaster.