Conference Agenda

In this study we develop and analyze different scenarios of a climate-neutral energy system in Austria by mid-century, focusing on the key sectors of industry, energy, transport, and buildings. Two distinct scenarios are developed: a TECH scenario reflecting a technology-driven transformation with relatively high energy demand and a RED scenario that is characterized by ambitious changes in economic and societal structures, e.g., implementation of circular value chains, recycling of resources, improved spatial planning, and an increased use of public transport, resulting in a comparably lower energy demand. Additionally, to consider different levels of energy market integration across scenarios, we distinguish between one case where Austria is fully embedded in the international market and has no restrictions to import renewable energy (electricity, renewable fuels, and hydrogen) and one where Austria's capacities to import are limited. The scenario framework builds on several sector models that were applied to estimate Austria’s future energy demand. To access the implications of the different scenarios for the energy system and the economy, we soft-link the energy demand data with the European energy-system model Euro-Calliope, which determines the cost-optimal energy supply mix in each scenario, and the macroeconomic model WEGDYN-AT, which accesses the associated economy-wide impacts. Our findings underscore that Gross Domestic Product, welfare, and employment levels improve in the low-energy scenarios because of efficiency gains. The reduction in energy demand and the associated improvements in efficiency have a positive impact on value added, as they make production processes more cost-effective and less resource intensive. Limited import possibilities lead to significant economic pressure due to higher domestic generation costs, which is particularly harmful in the energy-intensive TECH scenario. Furthermore, we find that negative distributional effects for low-income households can be avoided if low-income households are adequately compensated by government transfers.