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Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 10th Sept 2026, 07:05:08pm CEST (Norway)

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Daily Overview

Session

Integrated assessment models and scenario analysis
Location: Auditorium Q
Session Chair: Vito Avakumovic, University of Hamburg

Presentation 4

Modified Cost-Risk Analysis as a Bridge Between Target-Based and Trade-Off-Based Decision-Making Frameworks

Vito Avakumovic, Benjamin Blanz

University of Hamburg, Germany

Discussant: Katsumasa Tanaka (Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l\'environnement (LSCE))

This paper operationalises Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis (CBRA), an innovative framework that integrates well-known socioeconomic impacts into decision-making for global mitigation efforts by extending target based Cost-Risk Analysis (CRA). CBRA bridges trade-off-based approaches and target-driven methods while maintaining dynamic consistency within utility maximization, surpassing limitations of traditional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. By updating the MIND model with the FaIR climate module and a new simplified uncertainty scheme focused on climate sensitivity, the paper enhances computational feasibility in policy optimization. Furthermore, it introduces a novel damage function derived from a forward-looking Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, emphasizing that direct calculation of global losses captures essential economic interactions overlooked in traditional methods. This approach highlights the transparency and specificity of CGE-derived damages, aligning them with the forward-looking nature of policy-optimizing Integrated Assessment Models. CBRA quantifies how much of the unknown risks in climate targets are addressed by these explicit damage functions, effectively mediating between target-based and trade-off-based perspectives.