Conference Agenda

Afforestation is considered to be a promising way to mitigate climate change. However, its cost-effectiveness should be carefully evaluated, especially for regions with fragile environment and vulnerable ecosystem. This study develops a geographic-economic-ecological integration framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of afforestation for carbon sequestration in Northwest China. Based on the overlay model of natural factors and the economic optimization model of land use, the marginal land suitable for afforestation is identified. Then, the Richards growth function is employed to estimate the carbon sequestration potential of afforestation. Based on this, the carbon supply curve is fitted and the cost-effectiveness of afforestation for carbon sequestration is investigated. The results show that: (1) In Northwest China, 499.58×104 hectare of land is ecologically available for afforestation. However, only 102.71×104 hectare of these lands are economically feasible for afforestation, accounting for about 1/5 of ecologically available land. The lands suitable for afforestation are primarily grasslands and unused lands, which are mainly distributed in Qinghai and Gansu provinces. (2) Afforestation has a potential of carbon sinks with 9.37 million tons of CO2 per year in Northwest China. By 2060, this potential will cumulatively be 374.88 million tons of CO2, which can contribute 9.70%-15.06% of the region’s carbon neutrality. (3) The marginal cost of forest carbon is 153.72-1499.67 CNY/tCO2 in Northwest China, with an average cost of 948.81 CNY/tCO2. Compared with industrial emissions reduction, afforestation does not have cost-effectiveness to mitigate climate change in Northwest China. Additionally, afforestation would become even less cost-effective when consider the urgency of government to address climate change. These findings provide policy implications in designing and implementing carbon neutrality strategies.

In this paper, we use the hedonic price method to identify preferences for prescribed fires in Western Australia, a region with a strong history in the use of this forest management practice, amid a polarized view on its moral and scientific value. Using property fixed effects to account for unobservable time-constant attributes, and controlling for wildfires, we find a positive preference for prescribed fires. Moreover, we find stronger results for more recent fires, presumably due to the decreasing nature of risk reduction effects over time. Our findings also suggest that households’ risk perceptions are more susceptible to frequency of fires, rather than consequence – given that our results are stronger when we use number of fires as exposure indicator instead of area burnt. Capitalisation of prescribed fires is moreover much higher for properties with no wildfire experience. Additionally, our findings suggest that time-constant unobservable attributes significantly explain safety preferences for prescribed burning, making the use of property fixed effects essential.

In this paper, we study how new roads affect the spatial patterns of agricultural pro- duction and consequently impact deforestation and development outcomes, focusing on the historical experience of Brazil. We find that the expansion of Brazil’s road network since the 1990s can account for up to one quarter of the total amount of deforestation that the country has experienced, with significant variation across regions. Perhaps surprisingly, our results suggest that the increase in agricultural income attributable to road construction has been more limited. Turning to the future, we examine the potential impact of Brazil’s official infrastructure plans, and we quantify the ecological costs of improving market access in currently isolated areas.

This study explores the pivotal role of forests and other natural land-use choices in mitigating treatment costs across Canadian water treatment facilities. Utilising the comprehensive 2015 Survey of Drinking Water Plants, we delve into the relationship between land-use, raw water quality, and variable treatment costs. By employing advanced regression models, including spatial regression and mediation analysis, we reveal a significant and economically substantial impact of forest cover on reducing treatment costs, primarily through its influence on turbidity levels. We estimate potential for savings of up to $1.85 per hectare annually through the conversion of cropland to forest. This research not only contributes to the growing literature on ecosystem services valuation, but also emphasises the importance of integrating land-use considerations into effective water management strategies. The results offer compelling evidence for policymakers to advocate for the preservation and natural land-use choices, thereby harnessing the intrinsic value of ecosystems in sustaining water resources. This study represents one of the first national-scale valuation studies in Canada, and in an extension, incorporates the less-understood impact of forest disturbances (i.e., wildfires and logging) into analysis, paving the way for greater understanding of these critical relationships.