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Resumen de la sesión
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SES06-09h-2: POLÍTICAS AGRARIAS, ALIMENTARIAS Y COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL
Hora:
Viernes, 06/09/2019:
9:00 - 10:30

Presidente de la sesión: Dr. Rubén Granado Díaz, Universidad de Córdoba
Lugar: aula 2
Aulario 1, 84 plazas

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Ponencias

RECONVERSIÓN ECOLÓGICA DEL OLIVAR DE MONTAÑA EN ANDALUCÍA

Rubén Granado Díaz, Anastasio José Villanueva Rodríguez, José Antonio Gómez-Limón Rodríguez

Universidad de Córdoba, España

El olivar de montaña se caracteriza por su baja rentabilidad económica, derivada de su localización en zonas con elevada pendiente (altos costes) y suelos agronómicamente pobres y poco profundos (bajos rendimientos). Este hecho, junto a la competencia de las nuevas plantaciones de carácter intensivo y superintensivo, hacen que el riesgo de abandono de la actividad productiva sea particularmente elevado, lo que conlleva importantes riesgos medioambientales (principalmente, de incendios forestales) y socioculturales. Como alternativa, se propone la opción de incentivar su reconversión ecológica, potenciando la provisión de bienes públicos ambientales (especialmente biodiversidad y funcionalidad del suelo) e introduciendo medidas correctoras para paliar los principales efectos negativos del abandono del cultivo. En esta línea se propone un programa agroambiental dirigido a fomentar esta reconversión. El objetivo de esta comunicación es valorar los factores que determinan la disposición de los olivicultores de montaña andaluces a implementar el programa de reconversión planteado. Los resultados del trabajo muestran que los olivicultores más dispuestos a suscribir este tipo de contratos son aquellos con explotaciones de bajos rendimientos, a los que los ingresos agrarios suponen un bajo porcentaje de sus rentas y ya manejen su olivar con prácticas agroambientales como las cubiertas vegetales.



Agricultural intensification and land use change: Assessing induced intensification, land sparing and rebound effect

Virginia Rodriguez Garcia1, Frédéric Gaspart1, Thomas kastner2, Patrick Meyfroidt1,3

1Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium; 2Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Germany; 3F.R.S.-FNRS, 1000 Brussels, Belgium

Growing societal demands for land-based products can be satisfied through clearing new land or by intensifying production on cultivated land. Agricultural intensification has been promoted as a central strategy to fulfill these demands while reducing the pressure on land. The land sparing hypothesis postulates that intensification allows reducing cropland expansion. Yet, intensification can also drive expansion of land use. The rebound-effect hypothesis asserts that intensification can trigger further land use expansion by making agriculture more profitable and the induced intensification hypothesis postulates that restrictions on cropland expansion and increased demand can induce intensification. We tested those hypotheses using a global cross-country panel dataset over 1961-2016 and a cointegration model. For all crops together, in the short run, we found support for the induced intensification hypothesis for high-income countries, and rebound effect for middle- and low-income countries. In the long-run, land sparing held for middle-income countries and rebound effect held for low income ones. We also tested the same hypotheses for specific crops in different geographic contexts. Those results will contribute to a better understanding of the global agriculture and biodiversity trade-offs. The cointegration approach could be used for addressing other complex long and short run causal dynamics in land systems.



SEPARATING THE WHEAT FORM THE CHAFF: DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE IMPACT INDICATOR FOR PRIORITY PESTS (I2P2) TO IMPLEMENT EU PLANT HEATLH POLICY

Jesus Barreiro-Hurle, Berta Sanchez, Iria Soto-Embodas, Emilio Rodriguez-Cerezo

European Commission - Joint Research Centre (JRC), España

The increasing threat of plant pests is a worldwide phenomenon mainly due to the globalization of the plant trade and the effects of climate change. With scarce resources to set up systematic controls for all potential pests becomes uneconomical and these have to be focused on those which have most severe impacts. At the EU level plant health legislation calls for the identification of "priority pests" which will be subject of surveying, contingency plans, simulation exercises and action plans. In this paper we develop a composite index that translates the legislative provisions of Regulation 2016/2031 into measurable indicators and apply it to 28 quarantine pests short-listed by Member States. The composite index is comprised of 25 indicators grouped into 10 sub-domains and 3 domains to cover the most important economic, social and environmental impacts. The index incorporates uncertainty in three ways: considering the uncertainty of biophysical impacts associated with pest outbreaks when calculating the weights, providing specific rankings for pests affecting annual crops, permanent crops and trees, and undertaking sensitivity analysis with regards to weighting. The results allow identifying the pests for which the potential impact is most severe and therefore should be designated priority pests.



How coupled are decoupled payments? An evolving modelling framework for an evolving policy

Pierre Boulanger1, Kirsten Boysen-Urban2, George Philippidis1,3

1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, España; 2Hohenheim University, Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics, Germany; 3Agency for Research and Development (ARAID), Centre for Food Research and Technology (CITA), España

Decoupled payments are the predominant instrument of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), both in terms of the number of recipients and share of CAP expenditure. There are theoretically not linked to production and thus should not create incentives to produce. However it remains inconclusive whether these payments are fully decoupled from production or whether they still create incentives to produce via other coupling channels such as land markets, risk, credit constraints, future expectations and labour markets.

Based on comprehensive literature review and latest parameter estimates, the aim of this research work is to better understand and quantify the representation (and multiple effects) of European decoupled payments in economic simulation models. A key question to be addressed is by how much does the chosen parametrisation affect models' results?

This research work simulates (and compares outcomes of) a set of baseline scenarios covering different representations of decoupled payments within a general equilibrium modelling framework. Decoupled payments are treated either as fully or partially (de)coupled, and are allocated differently to factors based on relevant literature and confidence interval (low, medium and high estimates). Results reveal that a sound understanding and quantification of coupling factor remain critical for any rigorous ex-ante analysis of a complex CAP.



 
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